That’s the number of people who have votes for the Golden Globes. And they are notoriously open to having their votes…er…”influenced”. So, as ever, the Globes are sure to confound. And as much as odds-makers would like to use the Golden Globes as a barometer of which way the Academy voters will vote, it’s not the most useful tool. So, with that in mind, the following are simply my PREDICTIONS of how the ninety-three members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will vote, NOT who I personally think is most deserving.
Predicted winners in BOLD.
BTW, this is no “Will win – Should win”…I’ll save that for my Oscars predictions. This is simply a shot in the dark/guide for helping you follow along on Sunday night.
And with the exception of the three Best Series categories, I’m only predicting the winners in the film categories. Half the television nominees they chose are from shows I just refuse to take the time to watch.
In no particular order…
Best Original Score
Burwell’s “Three Billboards” score is classic…uh…Burwell. He loves his chord structures and you can hear them in all he does. However,this score features some darker sound beds and Spanish guitar…it’s pretty great. Johnny Greenwood, of Radiohead, gets his GG nom for “Phantom Thread”,. Alas, only one track has been released anywhere and neither the film nor its score are available until next week so I can’t give it a fair shake. But that one track is gorgeous! John Williams score for “The Post” is excellent. Inhabited with his usual symphonic flair, it also mixes in touches reminiscent of Lalo Schifren’s “Magnum Force” score. But none of these three have a shot. The fight is between Desplat’s lush and evocative “Shape of Water” score and Zimmer’s masterful and anxiety-inducing 90-minute sonic barrage for “Dunkirk”. Zimmer wins the Oscar, but I think Desplat wins here. (BTW, seek all these scores out…as well as Tamar Kali’s work for “Mudbound” – all are great listening)
a) Carter Burwell, Three Billboards
b) Alexandre Desplat, Shape of Water
c) Johnny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
d) John Williams, The Post
e) Hans Zimmer (& Benjamin Wallfisch), Dunkirk
Best screenplay is a tricky category at the Globes. It usually acts as a consolation prize for a great film with no shot at the best picture statuette…BUT, since there is no runaway winner (and since “Call Me By Your Name” wasn’t nominated), this award is truly a dart-throwing contest. I hope Gerwig wins the Oscar, but I think the Globes will give it to…uh…”Shape of Water”?
a) Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor, Shape of Water
b) Great Gerwig, Lady Bird
c) Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
d) Liz Hannah & Josh Singer, The Post
e) Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
“All the Money” is a terrible film, but the HFPA loves Scott. They also love Speilberg. McDonagh’s film is probably too meandering for the attention span of most of the HFPA. Del Toro has a shot since “Shape” is riding a wave of hype. None of i that matters. “Dunkirk” is one of the best made films of this century, and even the HFPA must see that…right? RIGHT?
a) Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
b) Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
c) Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
d) Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
e) Steven Spielberg, The Post
Best Supporting Actor
This is a race between Dafoe and Hammer (with a pity vote to Plummer as a possibility – not because he’s bad…he’s great…but because he saved a picture’s life). Chalamet gives the better performance in “Name” and Dafoe is spectacular. I’m going to guess Hammer due to the Euro-nature of “Call me By Your Name”. Dafoe will have to wait until March 4th.
a) Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
b) Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
c) Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
d) Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
e) Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actress
Blige is terrific, as is Chau. Janney is great, but maybe a little too broadly written, and Spencer’s role just doesn’t carry the load of the other four. The obvious choice here is Metcalf…but it’s the HFPA, so don’t be shocked to see Chau or Janney win.
a) Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
b) Hong Chau, Downsizing
c) Allison Janney, I, Tonya
d) Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
e) Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Best Foreign Language Film
Usually, by this point I have seen about a dozen of the Foreign Films put forth by their respective countries for consideration. Alas, this year, there has been very little opportunity, so I can’t even really guess. Sorry all. However, based on hype, and because the Academy voters I deal with all love “Fantastic Woman”, and those who saw “The Square” complained about its length, I’ll go with the former. I promise, I’ll see them all before Oscar prediction time.
a) A Fantastic Woman
b) First They Killed My Father
c) In the Fade
e) The Square
Best Animated Film
Simple. “Coco”. “Vincent” has an outside chance, but “Coco” is too good, too real, and too tissue-inducing.
a) The Boss Baby
b) The Breadwinner
e) Loving Vincent
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
So, let’s get real here…the best of this bunch in these specific films are Kaluuya and Elgort. Which means nothing when it comes to the HFPA. I fully expect Jackman to be chosen by the Gang of 93 just because. But, seriously…it’s not even his best performance of the YEAR (that honor belongs to “Logan”)…
a) Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
b) Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
c) James Franco, The Disaster Artist
d) Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
e) Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Good battle in this category between Ronan and Robbie. Exactly ninety three people have see “Leisure Seeker”, Dench does Dench better than anyone, but it’s not an overwhelming performance and Stone is actually terrific as Billie Jean King. But those other two give performances on a different level. I’m happy with either winning, but Ronan should have won for “Brooklyn”…so she gets it here.
a) Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
b) Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
c) Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
d) Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
e) Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Sure…”Lady Bird” and “Get Out” are comedies. Whatever you say, HFPA. I’d love to see “Get Out” get in since it has no shot at winning the Oscar and should be awarded SOMETHING big and public! That said, I think “Lady Bird” wins here.
a) The Disaster Artist
b) Get Out
c) The Greatest Showman
d) I, Tonya
e) Lady Bird
Best Actor – Drama
Oldman gives a once-in-a-lifetime performance, but he once referred to the HFPA as “a bunch of ridiculous wankers”. Not the most forgiving bunch, and given the choice between an actor who regularly questions the HFPA’s motivations and qualifications, and the lead from a beautiful little film that takes place in Italy, it’s kind of a no-brainer. They’ll give it to Chalamet. But come Oscar night, no one beats Oldman.
a) Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
b) Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
c) Tom Hanks, The Post
d) Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
e) Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress – Drama
Not sure what Michelle Williams was doing in “Money”. And Streep and Chastain cancel each other out for their performances in uniquely American historical films (not a huge draw for the HFPA). No, it’s between McDormand and Hawkins. Aaaand…Hawkins wins some long overdue hardware (btw, she could have EASILY been nominated for another film that came out this year, “Maudie” – which might be a better performance).
a) Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
b) Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
c) Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
d) Meryl Streep, The Post
e) Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Normally I would say it’s a no-brainer for “Call Me By Your Name”, given its locale and seventies Euro-romance qualities. But “Shape of Water” is being bandied about as the not so dark horse, and, of course, there’s my pick for best flick of the decade, “Dunkirk”. But, I’ll stick with my gut and call it by its name…
b) The Post
c) The Shape of Water
d) Call Me by Your Name
e) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Television Series – Drama
“The Crown” is a miraculous bit of television, “Stranger Things” and “This Is Us” are beloved by all. “Game of Thrones” will win in 2020 after its final season. None of that is enough to beat “Handmaid’s Tale”
a) The Handmaid’s Tale
b) This Is Us
c) The Crown
d) Game of Thrones
e) Stranger Things
Best Television Series – Comedy
Nintey three people watch “Maisel”. So, it will win. But, man, if you’re not watching “SMILF”, you’re missing some REALLY important television.
b) The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
c) Master of None
e) Will & Grace
Best Television Series – Comedy
“Big Little Lies”. End of story. But if anyone can tell me what the hell was going on in “China Girl”, I’d appreciate it. Oy, what a mess of a second season.
a) Big Little Lies
b) Feud: Bette and Joan
d) Top of the Lake: China Girl
e) The Sinner
See you this Sunday night! Have fun watching the rich people get drunk!
Written on 1/3/2018