95th Annual Academy Awards
So, I try and screen every nominated film, and this year I did with one exception, “Tell It Like a Woman”, because there is only so much time, and a film with only a Best Song nom is what goes by the way side (with the exception of “RRR”, which I have seen twice and is criminally void of nominations for several awards).
HOWEVER, this is the first non-COVID Oscars since 2005 at which I am not working the Red Carpet…which means no interaction with voters…which means I may get more wrong than I usually do. Last year I only had two wrong (the third time I’ve done that). Regardless, if your Oscar party has a pool, there’s a good chance if you use my picks, you’ll win.
Click here for a one-page handy-dandy ballot PDF with my picks.
And now, on to the picks
Best Motion Picture of the Year
People ask me all the time why a film like “Green Book”, “Shape of Water” or even “CODA” beat out films with more craft. The answer is the Academy votes on a preferential system. So if there are two front-runners, factions grow. So let’s say you really want film A to win. You obviously vote for them first. But film B, which is equally loved by the opposing faction, you’ll put last, so it won’t win. All of which is to say, quite often the third best film of the year wins Best Picture because everyone put film C in second position. Confused?
As for this group, it’s a lock for “Everything Everywhere..” which I can live with. Though if I’m being honest, I thought “All Quiet…”, “Women Talking” and the not-nominated “Living” were the best films of the year that I saw. As for the worst of the bunch? Man, “The Fablemans” made me want to vomit, as nauseatingly cloying as it was. However, my folks loved it.
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: All Quiet… or Women Talking
Not-so-longshot: All Quiet.. or Banshees of Inisherin
Should be here: RRR (seriously, this film is SOOOO good)
Achievement in Directing
Another gimme for “Everything…”. The Daniels’ have shifted our view of narrative structure in a way that’s extremely pleasant and joyful, all wrapped up in a mother-daughter drama. However, my parents hated it. That Sarah Polley isn’t here is ludicrous given its other nominations and how damned good it was. And I wouldn’t have minded “RRR’s”, S.S. Rajamouli getting a nom.
Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg
Tár — Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund
Will win: The Daniels
Should win: The Daniels
Long Shot: Martin McDonagh
Should be here: Sarah Polley, Women Talking or S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
What a tough category. Fraser and Nighy were simply incredible. Farrell was terrific in a movie I disliked immensely. Mescal gave a beautiful performance. None of it matters. Elvis Presley finally picks up his much desired Oscar.
Nominees:
Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living
Will win: Austin Butler
Should win: Brendan Fraser or Bill Nighy
Not-So-Longshot: Brendan Fraser
Should be here: Felix Kammerer (All Quiet…)
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis is nominated for her…what’s that now? Wait…so, Michelle Williams, in a SUPPORTING role (as the least Jewish mother in the history of Jewish mothers), gets a nod over Viola Davis? Oy. Listen, the discussion of who wins has been between Ms. Blanchett and Ms. Yeoh. It was a foregone conclusion Blanchett would win as recently as a couple months ago. Now it’s one of the locks of the night that it will go to Yeoh. I’m fine with either.
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett in Tár
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Michelle Yeoh
Should win: Cate Blanchett
Not-so-longshot: It’s either/or…
Should be here: VIOLA DAVIS! I mean…please…ugh.`
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Another lock is Quan. He’s won almost every other award for his performance, he’s a great Hollywood story, and he’s fantastic in the role. That said, Barry Keoghan and Ben Whishaw gave the best supporting performances of the year, in my estimation. I love that Brian Tyree Henry received a nom for the undervalued “Causeway” (which featured a brilliant JLaw, in a return to small roles). But, sorry, I cannot understand how Judd Hirsch received a nom for his three minutes of caricature over the amazing Ben Whishaw in “Women Talking”.
Nominees:
Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Ke Huy Quan
Should win: Quan or Barry Keoghan
Long Shot: Barry Keoghan
Should be here: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Finally we come to an award that NO one knows who will win. Seriously, a case can be made for all but Chau (who, though terrific, is overshadowed by the other performances). Me? I’d have voted for Condon, then Curtis, then Hsu or Bassett. So who should you pick? I’m going with Condon, though Curtis is right on her tail. Also, Dolly De Leon is the only lasting performance I’ll remember from “Triangle of Sadness”…so she might have deserved a nod.
Nominees:
Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Kerry Condon
Should win: Kerry Condon or Jamie Lee Curtis
Long Shot: Jamie Lee Curtis
Should be here: Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness
Original Screenplay
Another no-brainer. People love McDonaugh, but no one is stealing this from “Everything…”. I would have loved to see the Belgium masterpiece, and International Film nominee, “Close”, or Mendes’ “Empire of Light” get nods over “The Fabelmans”. 
Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin — Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
Tár — Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Written by Ruben Östlun
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Not So Long Shot: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should be here: Empire of Light – Written by Sam Mendes or Close – Written by Lukas Dhont & Anjelo Tjissens
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Academy will more than likely assuage its guilt for not nominating Sarah Polley for director by voting for her here. A worthy choice, though I loved the script for “All Quiet…” just as much. And just stop it with “Top Gun” getting a nom over any one of a number of films, including “The Whale” or “She Said”!
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front — Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — Written by Rian Johnson
Living — Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick — Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking — Screenplay by Sarah Polley
Will win: Women Talking
Should Win: Women Talking or All Quiet on the Western Front
Long Shot: Women Talking
Should Be Here: The Whale adapted by the original playwright, Samuel D. Hunter or She Said – Screenplay by Rebecca Lenkiewicz
Best Animated Feature Film
Did any of you watch “The Sea Beast”? Did any of you know it even exists? It’s on Netflix…by the people who brought you the lovely “How To Train a Dragon” franchise. It’s amazing. Amazing! Oh, right…”Pinnochio” will win.
Nominees:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should win: The Sea Beast
Best International Film
“All Quiet on the Western Front” is probably in the discussion of greatest WWI movies of all time…certainly in the modern film era. And since it won’t win Best Picture (it did at the BAFTA’s), then it’s a shoo-in here. Its only competition is the heartbreaking and beautiful “Close”, from Belgium. “EO” and “The Quiet Girl” are terrific as well (however, do NOT watch “EO” the same week your dog goes deaf…). “Argentina 1985” was a slog for me and I wish the Spanish slice of life, “Alcarras” had received its nomination instead. Ah well.
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front — Germany
Argentina, 1985 — Argentina
Close — Belgium
EO — Poland
The Quiet Girl — Ireland
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front or Close
Long Shot: Close
Should be here: Alcarras
Best Documentary Feature
Lots and lots of sleepytime film. “Fire of Love” and “All That Breathes” will put you right to sleep if you start them at night. “House Made of Splinters” was affecting, but not really a complete film…more of a journalistic pastiche of the consequence-of-war-nightmare stories. “All the Beauty and Bloodshed” and “Navalny” are the two best of the group, and “Navalny” is clearly the most focused. It will win. However, as a Bowie fanatic, I was insulted “Moonage Daydream” didn’t get a nod (while it did make the short list).
Nominees:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Will win: Navalny
Should win: Navalny or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Long Shot: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Should be here: Moonage Daydream
Best Documentary Short Subject
Not a great crop of shorts this year in the Live Action or Animated categories. However, the Doc space was mostly very good. Personally, I thought “The Martha Mitchell Effect” was the standout. But all signs point to “Elephant Whisperers” for the win. I LOVED “How Do You Measure a Year”. In 30 minutes it does more to describe a parent’s journey than all seventeen hours of “Boyhood”.
Nominees:
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Will win: The Elephant Whisperers
Should win: The Martha Mitchell Effect
Not So Long shot: Stranger at the Gate
Best Live-Action Short Film
Really just a mediocre bunch of shorts…with maybe the exception of “Ivalu” and “The Red Suitcase”. “Le Pupille” was way too saccharin. “Night Ride” is utterly inconsequential and screams film school. And the likely winner, “Irish Goodbye” reads like outtakes from a bad show on BritBox. I can only guess that since “Banshees” won’t win, the voters thought to give it to this film instead. Oy.
Nominees:
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Will win: An Irish Goodbye
Should Win: Ivalu
Long Shot: Le Pupille or Red Suitcase
Best Animated Short Film
Please save us from the ridiculously sappy shorts like “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse” and the air-sickness bag. Movie star voice over performances aside, it’s just yuck. But it will win. Me? I thought “The Ice Merchants” was the best, by far. “My Year of Dicks” was notable for its adult theme and language, which usually precludes it from nomination in this category.
Nominees:
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Will win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Should Win: Ice Merchants
Long Shot: My Year of Dicks
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SCORE)
I think Bertelman, has written magic for “All Quiet…”. It won’t win. Though it might.
I think Son Lux, has written magic for “Everything…”. It won’t win. Though it might.
I think Burwell, has written magic for “Banshees…”. It won’t win. Though it might.
I think Williams has written an extreme rip-off of a Morricone score for “The Fabelmans”. It won’t win. Though it really, really might.
I think Hurwitz has written an extremely self-derivative score for “Babylon”. It will probably win. Though it shouldn’t.
Finally I think Guðnadóttir wrote a BRILLIANT score for “Women Talking”. It wasn’t even nominated. Grr.
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann
Babylon — Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Son Lux
The Fabelmans — John Williams
Will win: Babylon — Justin Hurwitz
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann
Not So Long Shot: The Fabelmans — John Williams
Should be here: Women Talking – Hildur Guðnadóttir
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SONG)
Uh…”Naatu Naatu”, obviously!
Nominees:
“Applause” –Tell It Like a Woman; Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick; Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR; M.M. Keeravaani Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once; Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski
Will win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
Long Long Long Shot: “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Achievement in Sound
“Top Gun’s” to lose. But, really, “All Quiet…” Not even close.
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Will win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Long Shot: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Be Here: The Sea Beast or RRR
Achievement in Cinematography
Some great nominations here, but, seriously…not a close category. “All Quiet…”
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front — James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — Darius Khondji
Elvis — Mandy Walker
Empire of Light — Roger Deakins
Tár — Florian Hoffmeister
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front — James Friend
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front or Empire of Light
Should be here: Babylon, The Northman or RRR
Achievement in Film Editing
“Banshees”?! For editing?! What, because they made it last more than the thirty minutes necessary to tell the story with lots of shots of the Aran Islands? How do they take a nomination away from “All Quiet…” or “RRR”?!?! Anyway, “Everything…” wins this easily.
Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Elvis
Long Shot: Top Gun: Maverick
Should be here: All Quiet on the Western Front or RRR
Achievement in Visual Effects
Cameron is top of the world! (in this category). Would like to have seen “RRR” here.
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Long Shot: uh…none
Should Be Here: RRR
Achievement in Production Design
“Babylon” will win, and in this instance, is a worthy winner. It’s an amazing looking film that really makes you believe you are there at the beginning of talkies. “Elvis” could steal it, but…doubtful.
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Will win: Babylon
Should Win: Babylon
Long Shot: Elvis
Should be here: The Northman or RRR
Achievement in Costume Design
Seriously, “Elvis” has this sewn up (see what I did there?). But “Babylon” would be a worthy winner as well.
Nominees:
Babylon — Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ruth Carter
Elvis — Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris — Jenny Beavan
Will win: Elvis
Should win: Elvis
Long Shot: Black Panther
Should Be Here: RRR
Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Another win for “Elvis”. Only other film close is “All Quiet…”. Kinda feel like “The Northman” deserved a nom here.
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Will win: Elvis
Should win: Elvis
Long Shot: The Whale
Should be here: The Northman
That’s all. Good luck in your pools and in your hopes! See you at the Oscars!
The No Spoiler Critic 