It’s time for my picks and shoulda’s for Sunday’s 96th Annual Academy Awards!
So, I try and screen every nominated film, and this year I’m afraid I failed in that mission. I did not watch “Flamin Hot” (because Dianne Warren is going to lose again) or “Golda” (because the makeup category, while a tossup, won’t be any where near this film). I also had a REALLY hard time getting through the Feature Docs. I watched them, just not necessarily the whole way through. They were INCREDIBLY bleak…like more so than usual. But, lucky for me, the winner is a lock.
This is my second straight year not working the Red Carpet after putting in 17 years of service….which means no interaction with voters…which means I will invariably not do as well as my best years when I only got two wrong. Regardless, if your Oscar party has a pool, there’s a good chance if you use my picks, you’ll win.
Click here for my handy-dandy, play-along-at-home, cheat sheet/ballot!
And now, on to the picks
Best Motion Picture of the Year
People ask me all the time why a film like “Green Book”, “Shape of Water” or even “CODA” beat out films with more craft. The answer is the Academy votes on a preferential system. So if there are two front-runners, factions grow. So let’s say you really want film A to win. You obviously vote for them first. But film B, which is equally loved by the opposing faction, you’ll put last, so it won’t win. And vice versa. All of which is to say, quite often the third best film of the year wins Best Picture because everyone puts film C in second position. Confused?
As for this group, it’s a lock for “Oppenheimer”. Personally I would have chosen “Past Lives”, “Zone of Interest” and “Poor Things” (as well as non-nominee, “The Promised Land”) ahead of Nolan’s opus. As for the worst of the bunch? Well, “Maestro” quite easily the weakest of the bunch, still had much craftsmanship to it, especially from Ms. Mulligan.
As for what should be here? I’d have been pleased if “The Promised Land”, which is a big, epic Danish western with Mads Mikkelson, or “Saltburn”, which is, suffice to say, gorgeously creepy, had been in this group…though I’m, not sure what I would have pulled.
Nominees:
“American Fiction”- “Anatomy of a Fall”
- “Barbie”
- “The Holdovers”
- “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- “Maestro”
- “Oppenheimer”
- “Past Lives”
- “Poor Things”
- “The Zone of Interest”
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Past Lives
Longshots: None
Should be here: The Promised Land or Saltburn
Achievement in Directing
This is one of many locks this year, and with good reason. Despite what you may think of his tendency to drown out dialogue with sound, it’s a phenomenal piece of direction. Glazer and Lanthimos would be battling it out in any other year. But do yourselves a favor and take a gander at Pablo Larrain’s “El Conde” on Netflix. Larrain (“The Club”, “Neruda”, “No”, “Jackie”, “Spencer”) remains one of the most fearless directors making films today, alongside Iñárritu and Lanthimos close behind (though if Emerald Fennell keeps making films like “Saltburn” and “Promising Woman”, she may wrest that prize away from all of them).
Nominees:
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”- Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
- Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
- Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Will win: Christopher Nolan
Should win: Christopher Nolan
Long Shot: Yorgos Lanthimos
Should be here: Pablo Larrain, El Conde or Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
This award has seen the favorite go back and forth between Murphy and Giamatti quite a few times. But no matter. Its Murphy’s. Personally, I thought Colman Domingo’s Rustin was the best performance I saw. However, I’d put Murphy’s performance a close second. Then Wright, then Cooper and then Giamatti. I know, “how could I put Giamatti last?” I was not a fan of “Holdovers”. If that movie works at all its because of its women (Randolph and the fantastic, and underutilized Carrie Preston).
And, truly, Andrew Scott (“Strangers”) or Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn” – bathtubs will never be the same) could have easily been in this category.
Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”- Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
- Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
- Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
- Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Will win: Cillian Murphy
Should win: Colman Domingo
Longshot: Paul Giamatti
Should be here: Andrew Scott or Mads Mikkelson or Barry Keoghan
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Greta Lee. Greta Lee. Greta Lee. Greta Lee.
Okay, not that I’ve got that out of my system… It’s between Gladstone and Stone. In fact, odds-makers have it at almost 50/50. However, SAG awarded Gladstone, and the largest block of voters in the Academy are the actors, so I’ll pick Gladstone, even if I MUCH preferred Stone’s performance. And, uh, what’s Benning doing here? I mean, sure, she’s great, but it’s a one trick film with a lot of jellyfish. She took the spot from…I’ll stop…
Nominees:
Annette Bening, “Nyad”- Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
- Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
- Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
Will win: Lily Gladstone
Should win: Emma Stone (but only because Greta Lee wasn’t nominated)
Not-so-longshot: Emma Stone
Should be here: GRETA friggin’ LEE!!! Oh, and Margot Robbie
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Maybe the strongest grouping of the night will be the least competitive. It’s Downey’s. But man, Ruffalo and Gosling were great. And DeNiro was terrific. If I were voting? I’d probably vote for Brown. Fantastic!
Nominees:
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”- Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
- Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
- Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
Will win: Robert Downey Jr.
Should win: Sterling K Brown or Mark Ruffalo…or Downey Jr.
Long Shot: none
Should be here: Teo Yoo or John Magaro (Past Lives) or Charles Melton (May September)
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Another non-competitive category. Randolph soars over the others here. Not even close. HOWEVER, Danielle Brooks is the best thing about “Color Purple” by a country mile and she deserves to be remembered for her work.
Wouldn’t have minded seeing Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”), whose work, until now, I’ve never really loved…or the aforementioned Carrie Preston from “Holdovers”. Finally, I’ll throw out a crazy idea…Allison Janney for “The Creator”. Man, she’s great!
Nominees:
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”- Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
- America Ferrera, “Barbie”
- Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (though Danielle Brooks was amazing)
Long Shot: none
Should be here: Rosamund Pike, Carrie Preston or Allison Janney
Original Screenplay
While not a slam dunk, “Anatomy” will win. Not a huge fan of the film…or, rather, don’t quite understand its accolades. It’s a very good procedural that, without Huller’s performance, would be just good. I think people really connected to the reality of the fight at the end of the film’s second act. Maybe because I’m a couples therapist I wasn’t as amazed? I dunno. Personally, I’d have vote for “Past Lives” (shocking). But its Song’s first screenplay, so she might win down the road?
As for what wasn’t nominated? What if there was a movie where Chilean dictator, August Pinochet, was still alive and was a vampire? Now THAT’S an original screenplay! Yep…”El Conde”.
Nominees:
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)- “The Holdovers” (David Hemingson)
- “Maestro” (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer)
- “May December” (Samy Birch, Alex Mechanik)
- “Past Lives” (Celine Song)
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Past Lives
Long Shot: Past Lives
Should be here: Guillermo Calderon and Pablo Larrain, El Conde
Best Adapted Screenplay
This is a crazy category whose pick has shifted all over the place since nominations were announced. But recently it has become clear that “Fiction” is the front-runner, and not by a little. That said, “Barbenheimer” could wrench the award from Jefferson’s hands. Me? I’d vote “Zone of Interest” for one of the most unusual and crushingly bare films about man’s disregard for the suffering of others ever written. The only outside film that maybe could have earned a nod here would be “All of us Strangers”, a movie you won’t forget once you’ve seen it, but it’s no more deserving than any of these five terrific scripts.
Nominees:
“American Fiction” (Cord Jefferson)- “Barbie” (Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach)
- “Oppenheimer” (Christopher Nolan)
- “Poor Things” (Tony McNamara)
- “The Zone of Interest” (Jonathon Glazer)
Will win: American Fiction
Should Win: Zone of Interest
Not So Long Shot: American Fiction
Should Be Here (maybe): Andrew Haigh & Taichi Yamata, All of Us Strangers
Best Animated Feature Film
Did any of you watch “Robot Dreams” or “Nimona””? Did any of you know they even exist? The former is impossible to find so you’re off the hook. But the latter is on Netflix. It’s delightful. And features a gay couple at its centerpiece. That’s right, a fantastic, heartfelt, action-filled artfully animated parable wherein two male identifying knights make out at the very top of the film. Even “Elemental” is quite enjoyable and charming. “Boy and the Heron” was a snoozefest for me, but I’m not a fan of Miyazaki’s stuff. I know, I know. 私を訴えてください！(sue me!)
No matter, “Spider-Verse” will rightfully win. But check out “Robot Dreams” whenever it ends up being available. Lovely, lovely, film.
Nominees:
“The Boy and the Heron”- “Elemental”
- “Nimona”
- “Robot Dreams”
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Will win: Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse
Should win: Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse (but Robot Dreams and Nimona are right behind it)
Best International Film
“Zone of Interest”. End of.
As for the rest…so…”Io Capitano” can best be described as an African companion piece to 2013’s miraculous “The Golden Dream”, about the treacherous and heartbreaking journey people will take in the hopes of making a life out of harm’s way. Incredible. “Perfect Days” is a touching and subtle slice of life about a public toilet cleaner in Tokyo. Lovely. “Society of the Snow” is a harrowing recount of the 1972 Uruguayan Rugby team’s experiences after crashing high in the Andes. “The Teacher’s Lounge” is a sort of heavy duty After School Special about accusations vs. truth in a small community environment. And, in case you were wondering, France put forth “The Taste of Things” as its Oscar entry instead of “Anatomy of a Fall”. Bet they’re second guessing that decision right about now.
Nominees:
“Io Capitano” Italy- “Perfect Days” Japan
- “Society of the Snow” Spain
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” Germany
- “The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
Will win: Zone of Interest
Should win: Zone of Interest
Long Shot: none
Should be here: The Promised Land, Denmark
Best Documentary Feature
Holy shit, these are depressing. “20 Days” has it sewn up. That said, I really connected with “Four Daughters”.
Nominees:
“20 Days in Mariupol”- “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
- “The Eternal Memory”
- “Four Daughters”
- “To Kill a Tiger”
Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Should win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Long Shot: Four Daughters
Should be here: Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (if for no other reason than to give us SOMETHING to smile through)
Best Documentary Short Subject
Okay…so, “Nai Nai…” feels staged, while adorable. “Island..” isn’t as powerful as it seems like it should be. “Barber”, while important, isn’t as engaging as the top two…which are “ABC’s” and “Repair Shop”. “ABC’s” will win, I’m fairly certain, but “Last Repair Shop” made me smile on a bad day for many, many hours.
Nominees:
“The ABCs of Book Banning”- “The Barber of Little Rock”
- “Island in Between”
- “The Last Repair Shop”
- “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”
Will win: ABC’s of Book Burning
Should win: The Last Repair Shop
Not So Long shot: The Last Repair Shop
Best Live-Action Short Film
“Knight of Fortune” is the kind of silly, saccharine piece of fluff that makes you wonder if the shortlist committee members have a clue what they’re doing. “Invincible” just isn’t as great as it should be for an Oscar nom. “The After” felt like an Oyelowo passion piece…and an over-acted one at that. “Sugar” is a blast! And expensive, star-studded blast, to be sure. Only “Red White and Blue” feels weighty enough, important enough and current enough to stand out for me. All that said, “Sugar” will win, but I hope I’m wrong.
Nominees:
“The After”- “Invincible”
- “Knight of Fortune”
- “Red, White and Blue”
- “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
Will win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Should Win: Red, White and Blue
Long Shot: The After
Best Animated Short Film
I loved “Ninety-Five Senses”. I did not love “Our Uniform”. “Pachyderme” was incredibly powerful and beautifully animated. “War is Over!” is really good right up until the song is introduced. And “Letter to a Pig” is incredible until the baffling end. The toss up is between “Pig” and “War”. I’ll go with “Pig”. All that said, I’m REALLY not sure how Disney’s 100th celebration, “Once Upon a Studio”, didn’t make the cut. I mean, wow!
Nominees:
“Letter to a Pig”- “Ninety-Five Senses”
- “Our Uniform”
- “Pachyderme”
- “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
Will win: Letter To a Pig
Should Win: Pachyderme or Ninety-Five Senses
Not-So Long Shot: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Should Be Here: Once Upon a Studio
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SCORE)
In what I would call a weak year for outstanding scores, Göransson’s stands out, and it will show when the winner is announced. That said, I felt like there were some scores out there that got jilted when noms were announced. Among them, Anthony Willis’ “Saltburn”, Pemberton’s “Spider-Verse” and especially Mica Levi’s work for “Zone of Interest”. Though probably not possessing enough compositions to earn the nomination, I defy you to hear a score more well-connected to its film anytime soon…maybe even since Ennio’s earlier output. Not as beautiful, to be clear…but connected!
Nominees:
“American Fiction” (Laura Karpman)- “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (John Williams)
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Robbie Robertson)
- “Oppenheimer” (Ludwig Göransson)
- “Poor Things” (Jerskin Fendrix)
Will win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson
Should Win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson
Long Shot: Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
Should be here: Saltburn – Anthony Willis, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Daniel Pemberton, or Zone of Interest – Mica Levi
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SONG)
I liked “It Never Went Away from “American Symphony” quite a bit. Matters not. “Ms. Eilish and Finneas? Please make your way to the stage…”
Nominees:
“It Never Went Away” – American Symphony (Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson)- “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie (Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt)
- “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie (Billie Eilish, FINNEAS)
- “The Fire Inside” – Flamin’ Hot (Dianne Warren)
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” – Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)
Will win: “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie (Billie Eilish, FINNEAS)
Should Win: “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie (Billie Eilish, FINNEAS)
Long Shot: None
Should Be Here: “Quiet Eyes” – Past Lives (Sharon van Etten)
Achievement in Sound
“Oppenheimer” has it won. But the sound from “Zone”? Holy crap. That movie is all about the sound.
Nominees:
“The Creator”- “Maestro”
- “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
- “Oppenheimer”
- “The Zone of Interest”
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Zone of Interest
Long Shot: Zone of Interest
Should Be Here: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
Achievement in Cinematography
Can’t really blame the voters for giving it to Hoytema. “Oppenheimer” is gorgeously shot. Personally, I’d give it to “El Conde”…which none of you have seen. It’s on Netflix. It’s crazy good! A couple of other international films to throw in to the mix…”Taste of Things” (yum!) and “Promised Land” (epic!).
Nominees:
“El Conde” (Ed Lachman)- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Rodrigo Prieto)
- “Maestro” `(Matthew Libatique)
- “Oppenheimer” (Hoyte van Hoytema)
- “Poor Things” (Robbie Ryan)
Will win: Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema
Should Win: El Conde
Should be here: Taste of Things or The Promised Land
Achievement in Film Editing
Wait…”Killers”? The film with the ninety-minute first act? Jesus…what did they leave on the floor?!?! Would’ve loved to see “John Wick 4” here. Oh…sorry…right, “Oppenheimer” will win.
Nominees:
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Laurent Sénéchal)- “The Holdovers” (Kevin Tent)
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Thelma Schoonmaker)
- “Oppenheimer” (Jennifer Lame)
- “Poor Things” (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
Will win: Oppenheimer – Jennifer Lame
Should Win: Oppenheimer – Jennifer Lame
Long Shot: None
Should be here: John Wick 4
Achievement in Visual Effects
This is one of the biggest coin flips of the night. Half the voters are crazy for “Godzilla Minus One” because of what they accomplished on a tiny budget. The other half are gobsmacked by the imaginative work in “The Creator”. I’ll take a gamble and go with “Godzilla”, even while my intuition says “Creator”.
Nominees:
“The Creator”- “Godzilla Minus One”
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
- “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
- “Napoleon”
Will win: Godzilla Minus one
Should Win: Godzilla or The Creator
Not-So Long Shot: The Creator
Should Be Here: Society of the Snow
Achievement in Production Design
Okay…the “Barbie” versus “Poor Things” shootouts start here…all the pundits have “Barbie eking out this and the costume design award. I think “Barbie” gets enough of the angry vote to win both….though I’d personally give it to “Poor Things” for both (though, to be clear, it’s tougher choice for costumes).
Nominees:
“Barbie” (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Jack Fisk, Adam Willis)
- “Napoleon” (Arthur Max, Elli Griff)
- “Oppenheimer” (Ruth De Jong, Claire Kaufman)
- “Poor Things” (Shona Heath, ZsuZsa Mihalek, James Price)
Will win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
Not So Long Shot: Poor Things
Should be here: The Promised Land or Saltburn
Achievement in Costume Design
See above.
Nominees:
“Barbie” (Jacqueline Durran)- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Jacqueline West)
- “Napoleon” (Jany Yates, David Crossman)
- “Oppenheimer” (Ellen Mirojnick)
- “Poor Things” (Holly Waddington)
Will win: Barbie
Should win: Poor Things
Not So Long Shot: Poor Things
Should Be Here: El Conde
Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Willem Dafoe’s face in “Poor Things” deserves an award all by itself! It’s really close between “Maestro” and “Poor Things”. I have a feeling the only poor thing will be Bradley Cooper when he goes home without any gold.
Nominees:
“Golda” (Susan Battersby, Karen Hartley, Ashra Kelly-Blue)- “Maestro”(Kazuhiro Tsuji, Kay Georgiou, Lori McCoy-Bell)
- “Oppenheimer” (Luisa Abel)
- “Poor Things” (Mark Coulier, Nadia Stacey, Josh Weston)
- “Society of the Snow” (Montse, Ribé, David Marti, Ana López Puigcerver)
Will win: Maestro
Should win: Poor Things
Long Shot: Poor Things
Should be here: El Conde
That’s all. Good luck in your pools and in your hopes! See you at the Oscars!
The No Spoiler Critic 