Usual disclaimer: My SAG picks are usually FAR less accurate than my Oscars’ picks. We actors are so unpredictable. Oscar voters, not so much.

So, each year I give massive grief to the Nominating Committees for some of the inane choices they make. However, with couple (glaring) exceptions, they mostly make sense!

On the film side…how did we omit the work of Ms. Greta Lee in “Past Lives”. For me, it’s the best film of the year – and 90% of that is due to her performance. Listen, I love Annette Bening, but if we didn’t nominate Viola Davis last year for her physical work in “The Woman King”, then I don’t want to hear what Ms. Bening “went through” to bring Nyad to life. Nope. Makes no sense. Otherwise, excellent choices across the film nominee spectrum (actually I’d say we did better than the Oscars). Well, I guess if I’m being ultra critical, I would’ve preferred to see Taraji P. Henson get the nod over Jodie Foster or even Penelope Cruz. I’m not sure what movie Cruz was in, but it sure was different than the film everyone else was in in “Ferrari” – admittedly, a mess of a film. But, seriously, Jodie Foster has done better work in industrial films. As you can tell, I did not like “Nyad”, not that you asked. Also, tell me again how we nominated two actors from “Poor Things” but didn’t include them in ensemble (or Ruffalo)? Or, while I’m at it…”Saltburn”? Now THAT’S a cast that brings it (even if we’ll never look at a bathtub the same way ever again). And even if I didn’t particularly care for “May December”, Charles Melton might have been a better choice for Supporting than Defoe. Might.

As for television, I really feel like 95% of our culture world watches five shows. And the only way to get them to watch something else is by being convinced by a friend/parent/TikTok that they should try this show, ______, over on that other channel. As a result, many of the TV choices lack creativity and are mostly rote. And even then, the world’s downward spiral in to fewer and fewer silos – even as it relates to TV viewing habits – means less openness to something new.

On the flip side…there are so many hours in the day to give to the viewing of entire series. Luckily, as trained performers, we don’t have to watch an entire series, we simply need to observe the acting. I think most of us can judge an actor’s work as it relates to a competition by watching no more than a couple episodes, or even a few scenes. I mean, I found “Gilded Age” unwatchable after two episodes…so I spun ahead to watch the arc of the characters, and voila, I understand why it was nominated. I’m still not remotely voting for it. Simple!

Given that…WTAF with the no love for “Slow Horses” and Gary Oldman?! Come ON, people. Best character since Tom Hardy’s indelible Alfie Solomon (“Peaky Blinders”), who, likewise, never got a nomination, albeit for a supporting role. And no NoHo Hank? Was he not just as delicious in this crazy last season of “Barry”? And what will it take for us actors to recognize the brilliant “Reservation Dogs”?!

Okay…off my soapbox. Here we go…

So, nominees in BOLD are who I think will win. Nominees in ITALICS got my vote. Plus I pick one dark horse in each race…unless there is no chance.

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PART 1: FILM

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LEAD PERFORMANCE IN A FILM

Women

Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) – Could win
Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
Margot Robbie (“Barbie”) – outside chance as a protest against the Oscars
Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) – My Vote and Will win

It seemed a pretty foregone conclusion that Ms. Gladstone should win the Oscar, and by extension, the SAG. However, as of late there’s been a push for Emma Stone (who I voted for) and many experts are predicting she will, in fact, win. Neither movie is a piece of cake to watch, so there’s a chance Margot Robbie steals it in the end as a protest for the failure of the Oscars to nominate her. Me? I’m torn over who the actual winner will be and am glad I’m not betting with my own money. And though I’d be fine with Gladstone, Stone or Robbie, I’ll go with Ms. Stone. People pretty much universally found fault with “Maestro”, so while I think Mulligan was terrific, she’s really not in the discussion here. And, as stated earlier, Ms. Bening stole Greta Lee’s nomination.

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Men

Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) – My vote
Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) – Will win
Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)

In the biggest crap shoot of the night, the winner will be either Murphy or Giamatti. I think Murphy was the better performance (I really disliked the tone of “Holdovers”, a tone for which he is mostly responsible. The women in it, Randoph and Carrie Preston, actually made the film watchable for me. However, Colman Domingo’s performance in Rustin” is incredible and the best of the year as far as I’m concerned. Wright was possibly my second favorite performance of the season. And Cooper…was, well, certainly committed.

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SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE IN A FILM

Women

Emily Blount (“Oppenheimer”)
Danielle Brooks (“Color Purple”)
Penelope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) – Will win and my vote

I voted for Randolph and she’ll win, but I’d put Brooks RIGHT beside her. Then Blount. Cruz was in the wrong film and Foster was one note. Not bad performances by any stretch, just not of the same caliber as the aforementioned duo. Would’ve MUCH preferred to see Rosamund Pike here for “Saltburn”. Terrific!

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Men

Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”) – My vote
Willem Defoe (“Poor Things”)
Robert DeNiro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) – Will win
Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) – Outside chance

Downey was great. Really great. Brown was simply better in my estimation. Then I’d go DeNiro and then Gosling. Defoe, while amazingly weird, should never have received a nod over Ruffalo in the same film. Wow, what a performance. But “Saltburn’s” Jacob Elordi, “May December’s” Charles Melton or “Past Lives'” Teo Yoo or John Magaro were more deserving than Defoe. Great season for the Supporting Men

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Ensemble

“American Fiction”
“Barbie”
“The Color Purple”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer” – Will win and my vote

I struggled with my vote in this category, but in the end went with the bigger cast as there were no remotely weak performance in “Oppenheimer”. But “American Fiction” would receive my vote in any other year. The “Barbie” cast was great as well, but didn’t meet the overall standard of the other two. The “Killers…” cast was all over the place…same for “Color Purple”. Would have loved to see “Poor Things”, “Saltburn” or “Past Lives” here.

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PART 2: TELEVISION DRAMA

Got my anger out earlier on about my issues with some of our nominations. And, for the 117th time…we need a supporting actor category, so they don’t take away slots for actual lead actors. We could do it like the Globes does – lump Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series together for supporting. No one listens to me.

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Women

Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”)
Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”)
Bella Ramsey (“Last of Us”)
Keri Russell (“The Diplomat”)
Sarah Snook (“Succession”) – Will win and my vote

I loved all these performances. Doesn’t matter. Snook for the W!

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Men

Brian Cox (“Succession”)
Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”)
Kieran Culkin (“Succession”) – Will win
Matthew MacFadyen (“Succession”) – My vote
Pedro Pascal (“Last of Us”)

Yeah…I’m okay with these, though Jeremy Strong was pretty great…but SOMEONE had to be left out of the “Succession” maelstrom. I’d have been fine with Cox being out in the cold.  Personally I thought MacFadyen edged out Culkin this year. But I’m totally okay with Culkin winning. A tour de force in many areas.

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Ensemble

“The Crown”
“The Gilded Age”
“The Last of Us”
“The Morning Show”
“Succession – Will win and my vote

Too bad “The Crown” really kinda shit the bed as a cast its last couple seasons. And, sorry, I don’t get the “Gilded Age” nomination. “Last of Us” was very well performed…especially episode 3, with Offerman and Bennett. And “Morning Show” is deliciously scene burnt!   Matters not. “Succession” succeeds where the other do not.

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PART 3: TELEVISION COMEDY

Women

Alex Borstein (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”)
Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) – My vote
Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) – REAL chance
Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) – Will win
Hannah Waddingham (“Ted Lasso”)

Can you believe last year we didn’t nominate Edebiri? Seems insane now. Personally I voted for Brosnahan this year. In this last season of “Maisel”, she was sensational, though very few watched. That said, Ayo is fantastic and a worthy winner. Oh, and I wouldn’t have minded a nod to Meryl Streep for “Only Murders”. She is simply the most.

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Men

Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”)
Bill Hader (“Barry”)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) – My vote
Jason Sudekis (“Ted Lasso”)
Jeremy Allan White (“The Bear”) – Will win

In a world where neither Carrigan nor Henry Winkler are nominated, and Moss-Bachrach can’t win because he’s up against leading characters, and “Jury Duty” is ignored altogether, and Steve Martin is not nominated right when they FINALLY give him the funny stuff, one can’t say that we got this totally right. <sigh> It is what it is, I suppose. I voted for Moss-Bachrach, but White will win going away.

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Ensemble

“Abbott Elementary” – Will win
“Barry”
“The Bear” – Will win and my vote
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Ted Lasso”

Not going to list all the comedies that could have been mentioned, even though this season of “Murders” was meh at best, and this season of “Maisel” was fantastic at worst – and deserved a final cast farewell nomination. But “Jury Duty” would’ve been a good substitute, dontcha think?

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Part 4: TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Last year we missed a million great performances in this category. This year, not so much. These are pretty good picks to choose from. Granted, I didn’t watch them all front to back, but did watch more than enough to make knowledgeable choices. I did watch “Beef” and didn’t love it like the entire world told me I was supposed to. Doesn’t matter, they’ll both win…but…

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Women

Uzo Adoba (“Painkiller”)
Katherine Hahn (“Tiny Beautiful Things”)
Brie Larson (“Lessons in Chemistry”) – My vote
Bel Powley (“A Small Light”)
Ali Wong (“Beef”) – Will win

Hahn and Larson were the two best I saw, with Powley (who was great in this week’s “Masters of the Air” episode), running in third. But, again, Wong has it sewn up.

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Men

Matt Bomer (“Fellow Travelers”) – My vote
Jon Hamm (“Fargo”)
David Oyelowo (“Lawmen”)
Tony Shalhoub (“Mr. Monk’s Last Case”)
Steven Yeun (“Beef”) – Will win

I guess I’m just getting a little tired of Hamm being the tough. He was fine in “Morning Show” and the same in “Fargo”, but not much in the way of three dimensions. Oyolewo is fine. And Shalhoub is awesome, but in a trifle of a film. Truthfully, I don’t think Bomer was even the best actor in his show. Jonathon Bailey was the miracle in it. But, the two of them made me feel something more than anything else out there. But Yeun’ll will.

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Part 5: Stunts

Film

“Barbie”
“Guardians of the Galaxy 3”
“Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny”
“John Wick 4” – Will win and my vote
“Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One”

Wick or MI. I’ll take Wick for the wow!

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Television

“Ahsoka” – Will win
“Barry” – My vote
“Beef”
“Last of Us”
“The Mandalorian”

I thought “Barry’s” stunts were the most impressive. “Mandalorian’s” were negligible compared to the previous year. “Beef’s” were meh. And “Last of Us” was a whole lot of CGI. But “Ahsoka”, while a TERRIBLE show, will win…couldn’t tell you why. It just will.

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Enjoy the Awards!! See you at The Oscars!