2017 SAG Awards Predictions

Well, this should be a semi-interesting awards show. “Interesting” because, with the exception of one or two races, it could go in a million different directions. “Semi” because I just didn’t find the majority of Hollywood films or television comedies to be particularly interesting (with some exceptions, obviously). But, unlike the Oscars, whose voting I can usually anticipate with some ease, I have no idea how seriously SAG members take the responsibility of voting, so it’s far harder to pinpoint with any assured accuracy how it’ll go. That said, I’ll give it my best…but you might want to wait until the Oscars to use my picks in your pool. (How’s that for aiming low?)

However, two things that WILL make this more interesting are the lack of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy hanging over it this year (wait until NEXT year for that – there are almost NO films about people of color in the pipeline, so, as ever, blame the PGA, not SAG or AMPAS). Secondly, the SAG Nominating Committee did a MUCH better job in the Miniseries categories this year…as chances are people actually WATCHED these shows!

Since I have already gone in to great detail about every performance in my SAG Award Viewing Guides (Film, TV Drama, TV Comedy, TV Miniseries), this will simply be a summary of my predictions versus my predilections.

Who I think will win in BOLD.

Who I voted for noted by “***”

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Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama

So any award for stunt people that doesn’t reward a show for this scene from season two of “Daredevil” isn’t worth a thing. BUUUUUT I think many more folk watch “Walking Dead”, so while it shouldn’t even be a close, I’ll predict the less-deserving ensemble.

a) Game of Thrones

b) Marvel’s Daredevil***

c) Marvel’s Luke Cage

d) The Walking Dead

e) Westworld

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Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Massive carnage on a Mel Gibson-ian scale should be enough to overcome any competition, even if “Civil War” may rival its actual use of a stunt ensemble.

a) Captain America: Civil War

b) Doctor Strange

c) Hacksaw Ridge***

d) Jason Bourne

e) Nocturnal Animals

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Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

In spite of an incredible performance by Ms. MacDonald, I think it’s a foregone that the year of O.J. will point to Ms. Paulson. Well deserved, too.

a) Bryce Dallas Howard (Black Mirror)

b) Felicity Huffman (American Crime)

c) Audra MacDonald (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill)

d) Sarah Paulson (People vs. O.J. Simpson) ***

e) Kerry Washington (Confirmation)

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Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

This is a really tough call. I mean, any actor worth their salt knows Cranston gave the best performance of this bunch. Running away. BUT, I’m not sure enough members watched it. And, while Turturro is almost as equally deserving of the award, I think “O.J.” trumps (sorry) all else in this category. And since, Sterling K. Brown, who is also nominated for “This Is Us”, gives a better performance here than there. But, really, Bryan Cranston, Bryan Cranston, Bryan Cranston!

a) Riz Ahmed (The Night Of)

b) Sterling K. Brown (The People vs. O.J. Simpson)

c) Bryan Cranston (All the Way) ***

d) John Turturro (The Night Of)

e) Courtney B. Vance (The People vs. O.J. Simpson)

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Female Actor in a Comedy Series

All the comedy nominees make me crazy, since, with very few exceptions, they are the usual suspects and well beyond their “sell-by” date. So I really don’t know who the hell to predict here. As proof, Edie Falco never won for “Nurse Jackie”. So, I voted for the more-than-deserving Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, but I fully expect we’ll give it to Uzo, who had her least character-centric season thus far.

a) Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black)

b) Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie)

c) Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

d) Julia Louis-Dreyfuss (Veep) ***

e) Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie)

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Male Actor in a Comedy Series

I said it last year, and I’ll say it again…Jeffrey Tambor is god. But I’m wondering if the last season of “Transparent” mightn’t have been a tad too heavy for many voters to get through. I mean, it’s a no-brainer to me, but I wouldn’t mind if Titus Burgess won it. However, in these days of hate and protest, we just might vote for Mr. Anderson, who’d be my fourth choice based on performance.

a) Anthony Anderson (black-ish)

b) Titus Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)

c) Ty Burrell (Modern Family)

d) W.H. Macy (Shameless)

e) Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent) ***

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Female Actor in a Drama Series

I don’t know. Toss a coin in the air. “Stranger Things” was the most watched, “Westworld” was the most talked about (yawn), and Claire Foy was absolutely sensational in a sensational show. But Robin Wright gave the performance of a lifetime in this past season of “House of Cards”. I think Brown and Ryder cancel each other out, many people wondered if Newton even gave the best female performance in the show, and I’m not sure enough people watched “The Crown”. So, I GUESS Robin Wright takes the giant statuette.

a) Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)

b) Claire Foy (The Crown)

c) Thandie Newton (Westworld)

d) Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)

e) Robin Wright (House of Cards) ***

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Male Actor in a Drama Series

John Lithgow simply gives the best performance I have ever seen on a TV screen in episode nine of “The Crown” (though he is incredible throughout the entire season). If he doesn’t win, every single voter who voted for someone else should have to hand in their Union Cards and find another vocation.

a) Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

b) Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)

c) John Lithgow (The Crown) ***

d) Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)

e) Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

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Ensemble in a Comedy Series

My biggest dispute with the nominating committee is right friggin’ here. I mean, “Big Bang”, “Modern Family” and “Orange”? Again? What about:

• “Atlanta”
• “Better Things”
• “Brooklyn Nine Nine”
• “Insecure”
• “New Girl”
• “Silicon Valley”
• “Transparent”

Ugh. But I guess I gotta deal with what they gave us. Of this motley crew, “Veep” is the lone deserving candidate. And I think it will win. But if Anthony Anderson wins for his individual performance…it’s going to “black-ish”.

a) The Big Bang Theory

b) black-ish

c) Modern Family

d) Orange is the New Black

e) Veep ***

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Ensemble in a Drama Series

Not sure how “Abbey” snuck in here. Normally I’d say it’s a two-horse race (“The Crown” and “Thrones”, which had its best season ever), but there exists so much buzz about “Stranger Things”…and it has kids…which our Union loves. I think it should go to “The Crown”, but I’d put my money on “Things”

a) The Crown ***

b) Downton Abbey

c) Game of Thrones

d) Stranger Things

e) Westworld

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Female Actor in a Supporting Role

They’re all very good (especially Williams and Spencer), but…seriously…if Viola Davis doesn’t win this both here and at the Oscars, I’ll eat my hat (granted, I have one made of chocolate…nonetheless…)

a) Viola Davis (Fences) ***

b) Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

c) Nicole Kidman (Lion)

d) Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

e) Michelle Williams (Manchester By the Sea)

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Male Actor in a Supporting Role

I loved Jeff Bridges performance, and he and Mahershala Ali are the only serious contenders here, for me. I think we’ll give it to the latter, though I voted for the former.

a) Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

b) Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) ***

c) Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

d) Lucas Hedges (Manchester By the Sea)

e) Dev Patel (Lion)

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Female Actor in a Leading Role

Viola Davis will walk away with this…huh? Oh. Supporting, right! Emma Stone is fantastic, but Portman’s performance was transcendent and I hope to hell she wins here and at the Dolby in February. That said, Stone plays an actress in L.A. Duh.
(On a side note, while I’m grateful we didn’t reward Isabelle Huppert in a TERRIBLE film, how did Emily Blount get a nod over Annette Bening?!)

a) Amy Adams (Arrival)

b) Emily Blount (Girl on the Train)

c) Natalie Portman (Jackie) ***

d) Emma Stone (La La Land)

e) Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

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Male Actor in a Leading Role

Twenty years from now, we’ll look back at Denzel’s performance and say: “Wait..Denzel didn’t win every award in sight that year? Who won that year again? Oh, right, Casey Affleck. That seems silly now, doesn’t it?)

a) Casey Affleck (Manchester By the Sea)

b) Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

c) Ryan Gosling (La La Land)

d) Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

e) Denzel Wasington (Fences) ***

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Cast in a Motion Picture

Someone has to tell me how “20th Century Women” didn’t receive a nomination. Easily one of the five best ensemble performance of the year. I’d have put them in over “Captain Fantastic”…but again, we sure love those kids (don’t get me started). “Fences” and “Manchester” have fantastic ensembles, but, truly, “Moonlight” is the cinematic ensemble achievement of the year…which means “Manchester” will win.

a) Captain Fantastic

b) Fences

c) Hidden Figures

d) Manchester By the Sea

e) Moonlight ***

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Have fun!!! And see you next time at the Oscars!

Written January 29, 2017