That’s the number of people who have votes for the Golden Globes. And they are notoriously open to having their votes…er…”influenced”. So, as ever, the Globes are sure to confound. And as much as odds-makers would like to use the Golden Globes as a barometer of which way the Academy voters will vote, it’s not the most useful tool. So, with that in mind, the following are simply my PREDICTIONS of how the ninety-three members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will vote, NOT who I personally think is most deserving.
Predicted winners in BOLD.
BTW, this is no “Will win – Should win”…I’ll save that for my Oscars predictions. This is simply a shot in the dark/guide for helping you follow along on Sunday night.
And with the exception of two races I’m intrigued by, I’m only predicting the winners in the film categories. Half the television nominees they chose are from shows I just refuse to take the time to watch.
Best Original Score
Johannsson’s score relies too heavily on a piano piece from Max Richter…
The “Lion” score is a duplicate of Johannsson’s “Theory of Everything”…
Nicholas Britell’s score for “Moonlight” is, I believe, the best of the bunch, BUT…
…this is a race between Hurwitz (La La Land) and Zimmer/Pharrell/Wallfisch (Hidden Figures). And a musical is probably too much for the HFPA to pass up.
a) Nicholas Britell (Moonlight)
b) Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)
c) Johann Johannsson (Arrival)
d) Dustin O’Halloran & Hauschka (Lion)
e) Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams & Benjamin Wallfisch (Hidden Figures)
Best screenplay is a tricky category at the Globes. It usually acts as a consolation prize for a great film with no shot at the best picture statuette…BUT, it occasionally acts as an eyebrow raiser for what might be coming down the road for Best Picture. That said, this year it’s strictly a “thanks for playing” blue ribbon for the fantastic “Hell Or High Water”.
a) Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
b) Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
c) Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
d) Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By the Sea)
e) Taylor Sheridan (Hell Or High Water)
So, the HFPA loves to reward technical wizardry (“Revenant”, “Boyhood”, “Gravity”, “Hugo”). But this year, there is only one nominee whose film falls under that category, Mel Gibson. “Hacksaw Ridge” is a visual feast…of death. So normally I would suggest it for the win, but “La La Land” has that mini-movie at the back end that is very reminiscent of the beloved “Red Shoes”. Thus I’ll guess “La La Land”…but won’t be surprised if Mel stumbles to the podium. Besides, with the inauguration in a couple weeks, wouldn’t that be most fitting?
a) Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
b) Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
c) Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
d) Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
e) Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By the Sea)
Best Supporting Actor
For me, there is only one winner here…BUT the National Society of Critics just gave their award to Mahershala Ali, who is betterin “Moonlight” than he’s ever been, but really it amounts to one amazing scene. However, Jeff Bridges owns “Hell Or High Water”, and I think the HFPA will recognize that.
a) Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
b) Jeff Bridges (Hell Or High Water)
c) Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
d) Dev Patel (Lion)
e) Aaron-Taylor Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Best Supporting Actress
Okay, this is where it gets silly. Viola Davis has been put forth as a Best Supporting performer for all awards this season. She could have easily won Best Actress in all of them. To me, there is not even a whiff of a competition here. BUT, Michelle Williams has been beating her all over the place, and if Ms. Williams wins here, I believe “Manchester” will definitely win Best Drama. But if Ms. Davis rightfully picks up the prize, there will still be some drama come Best Drama time. But for the sake of all that is right with the world, I’ll guess Viola Davis.
a) Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
b) Nicole Kidman (Lion)
c) Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
d) Michelle Williams (Manchester By the Sea)
e) Viola Davis (Fences)
Best Foreign Language Film
Notice something interesting about these nominees? That’s right THREE of them are from France. This means, no “Land Of Mine”(Denmark), no “Man Named Ove” (Sweden), no “Olli Maki” (Finland), no “Handmaiden” (S. Korea), no “sieranevada” (Romania). This is the reason everyone outside of France roots so hard against French films for the Oscar. (I have first hand proof of this – remind me to tell you my story from the Red Carpet in 2008, the year “Departures” beat “The Class”). But, worst of all, a three-hour German comedy, “Toni Erdmann”, is probably going to win – with “The Salesman” having an outside shot. That said, I’ll be rooting for the brilliant “Neruda”.
a) Divines (France)
b) Elle (France)
c) Neruda (Chile)
d) The Salesman (Iran, France)
e) Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Best Animated Film
It’s going to be “Kubo” or “Zucchini”…unless Disney buys them all a new car (which is possible). But I’ll flip a coin and go with “Kubo”.
b) My Life As a Zucchini
e) Kubo and the Two Strings
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
How great would it be if Reynolds won for “Deadpool” (which I would welcome)? Or Farrell for the crazy and ultra-strange “Lobster” (even better)? Never gonna happen. Enjoy your time at the top, Mr. Gosling.
a) Colin Farrell (The Lobster)
b) Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
c) Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
d) Jonah Hill (War Dogs)
e) Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
THIS is the most unknowable of the night. They HFPA LOVES Annette Bening. And the only performer they love more than Bening is Meryl Streep. But Emma Stone was sensational in the kind of film the HFPA loves to reward. Could go to any of the three…but I’ll roll my three sided dice and assume it lands on Ms. Stone.
a) Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
b) Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply)
c) Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)
d) Emma Stone (La La Land)
e) Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Imagine this lovely Variety headline: “‘Sing Street’ Big Winner At Golden Globes!!” Alas, my favorite film of 2016 only wins in my dreams. It’s a “La La” kinda night, all the way.
a) 20th Century Women
c) Florence Foster Jenkins
d) La La Land
e) Sing Street
Best Actor – Drama
So the only person who can beat Denzel is Casey, which he probably will, come Oscars night. But the HFPA often leans toward the theatrical, so Denzel gets a well-deserved orb.
a) Casey Affleck (Manchester By the Sea)
b) Joel Edgerton (Loving)
c) Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
d) Viggo Mortensen (Capt. Fantastic)
e) Denzel Washington (Fences)
Best Actress – Drama
When it comes to the Globes, never underestimate the power of a foreign nominee in a foreign film! After all, the “F” in HFPA stands for FOREIGN. And while Natalie gives an INCREDIBLE performance (the best of the year, in my estimation), she ain’t beating the French woman, especially since the French are going to go 0-fer-3 in the Best Foreign Language Film category .
a) Amy Adams (Arrival)
b) Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
c) Isabel Huppert (Elle)
d) Ruth Negga (Loving)
e) Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Moonlight” wins! Nah, only kidding (sadly).
“Hell Or High Water” wins! Nah, only kidding (sadly).
“Manchester” with no trouble.
a) Hell Or High Water
c) Manchester By the Sea
e) Hacksaw Ridge
Best Television Series – Drama
This is one of the few TV categories I’m interested in. The Globes are almost impossible to predict when it comes to TV. I’m curious if they choose the standout historical experience (The Crown) over the weekly network tearjerker (This Is Us). I think they’ll choose the former…
a) Game of Thrones
b) Stranger Things
c) This Is Us
e) The Crown
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Drama
Dear SAG Nominating Committee…what the hell does Keri Russell have to do to get noticed?! That said, it’s her, or a perpetually morose Balfe (Outlander) for the win.
a) Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)
b) Claire Foy (The Crown)
c) Keri Russell (The Americans)
d) Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
e) Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
Written on 1/7/2016