87th Oscar Predictions: Will win / Should win

HERE IT IS! My official Oscars “Will/Should” Ballot
I tend to do very well in predicting the winners as I see everything and, due to my prximity to the awards and the voters, I usually can read the temperature of the AMPAS voting room, so, if in doubt about the lesser known categories, use mine
(NOTE: Correct predictions in BOLD. Incorrect in ITALICS – I finished 16 out of 24. Not my best year):

Will: Birdman
Should: Birdman
Why: Since I’ve been out here talking to some voters, there are more people who feel that Boyhood was a great experiment but not a great film.

Will: Keaton
Should: Keaton
Why: NOTHING is more welcome amongst AMPAS voters than a comeback story

Will: Moore
Should: Moore
Why: ‘Cause

Supporting Actor:
Will: Simmons
Should: Simmons
Why: Well, he was great but so was every nominee in the category. Something about his performance just stuck

Supporting Actress:
Will: Arquette
Should: Arquette (with a nod to Streep)
Why: 12 years of being a lovely mom? Call her name!

Animated Feature:
Will: Dragon 2
Should: Lego Movie – not nominated (outrageous error #1)
Why: No idea, but this film is LOVED by Academy members

Will: Budapest
Should: Ida
Why: Voters love the film, but not enough for the major awards…so tech awards it is (and it will win a bunch of them)

Costume Design:
Will: Budapest
Should: Mr. Turner
Why: 1) Not enough voters saw Turner and 2) see above

Will: Linklater
Should: Inarritu
Why: The make up award for dissing Boyhood for Picture

Doc Feature:
Will: CitizenFour
Should: Red Army – not nominated (outrageous error #2) – but Last Days and Vivan Meier are both worthy, as well
Why: It’s incredibly compelling stuff that feels like a feature

Doc Short:
Will: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Should: Crisis
Why: It’s the real story of what American Sniper is trying to say

Will: Budapest
Should: Whiplash
Why: See above, but this could easily go the “should” way

Foreign Language:
Will: Leviathan
Should: Ida
Why: Leviathan is more epic in scope, while Ida is a small personal film. Hope I’m wrong. I think Ida is a perfect little film.

Will: Budapest
Should: Guardians of the Galaxy
Why: SciFi fantasies have a real hard time winning

Will: Theory of Everything
Should: Theory of Everything
Why: One of the ten best scores in the last 25 years. Not even close.

Will: “Glory”
Should: “Glory” with a nod to “Awesome”
Why: Well, it has to, right? RIGHT? God help the Academy if it doesn’t.

Production Design:
Will: Budapest
Should: Turner
Why: See above, and, alas, not enough people saw Turner. Wow, is it an incredible feat!

Animated Short:
Will: Dam Keeper
Should: Dam Keeper
Why: While the voters usually stay away from sentimental (vs. cute), this short, like few in the past, is just so much better than the rest.

Live Action Short:
Will: The Phone Call (or Boogaloo)
Should: Aya
Why: Ugh. Don’t get me started. Aya is one of the GREAT shorts ever nominated. But, alas, movie stars, octogenarian subject matter, or cute kids & animals trump craftsmanship in this category every time.

Sound Editing:
Will: Sniper
Should: Sniper (or Hobbit)
Why: Realistic war flicks always win this award. in this instance it’s fitting. PTSD is more about stress related to aural stimuli than anything else. That said, The Hobbit films NAIL this task every time.

Sound Mixing:
Will: Whiplash
Should: Whiplash
Why: It’s a film that takes you on an intense aural journey. None of the other films can make that claim

Visual Effects:
Will: Interstellar
Should: HOBBIT – not nominated (outrageous error #3)
Why: No idea. This could go any of the five nominated films, but, again, I’ll go with the serious films over the action flicks…but, seriously, no Hobbit is ridiculous.

Writing – Adapted:
Will: Imitation Game
Should: Imitation Game
Why: Best written of the above, but Sniper could steal a statuette here

Writing – Original:
Will: Birdman
Should: Birdman
Why: Birdman

Originally written on 2/2/2015

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