It’s time for my picks and shoulda’s for Sunday’s 98th Annual Academy Awards!
In spite of spending several months filling most of my free time studying for an exam (that I passed on the fourth try – I am now a Licensed Marriage and Family Therapist, hell yeah!) and then another month trying to catch up on all the SAG Actor Award TV that was nominated, I somehow managed to watch EVERY Oscar nominated film this year. All of them! Well, okay, I could only get through about thirty minutes of The Smashing Machine and even less of The Ugly Stepsister. But since neither of them have a chance to win their category, I’m okay with that.
As for award predictions, interestingly most of the acting categories were decided UNTIL the SAG Awards went against type in both male lead actor and female supporting actor. But no one is more responsible for throwing away an Oscar than the former front-runner himself, Timothee Chalamet. He is now very much considered an also ran, but more on that later. Otherwise, the biggest up in the air choices are in the shorts categories.
But there were some great films this year, and very few crappy ones received nominations. I know this because I saw several films phenomenal films that were left out in the cold, or some that received a single nomination in one area, where they might have deserved a nom in a different one – or several (talking about you Kohuko).
So, without any more of that ado stuff, let’s get on with it…
Click here for my play-along-at-home ballot/cheat sheet!
And now, on to the picks
Best Motion Picture of the Year
People ask me all the time why a film like “Green Book”, “Shape of Water” or even “CODA” beat out films that we all know were better. The answer is the Academy votes on a preferential system (for Best Picture only). So if there are two front-runners, factions grow. So let’s say you really want film A to win. You obviously vote for them first. But film B, which is equally loved by the opposing faction, you’ll put last, so it won’t win. And vice versa. All of which is to say, quite often the third best film of the year wins Best Picture because everyone puts film C in second position. Confused?
So it sure looked like this was a foregone conclusion for OBAA…that is until the SAG Awards gave it to Sinners. But I still think it will go to Battle. It’s certainly a more complete film. For me, Hamnet was more affecting, Frankenstein was more wow, Bugonia was more interesting, Sirat was more insane, Train Dreams was more spellbinding and Sentimental Value was more…well…everything! And not for nothing, doc nominee, Come See Me in the Good Light was brilliant enough to be considered, as well as the Japanese entry, Kokuho. Now, I hated Marty Supreme (a movie on a quest to show that 2 hours of following a despicable character isn’t nearly enough time), was loving Sinners until all the vampire stuff (not my thing), F1 was fine, but not great, and while Secret Agent held my attention, there have been far better films about that specific era and subject. So yes, One Battle for the win, though I would have voted for Sentimental Value.
Nominees:
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: Sentimental Value
Not So Longshot: Sinners
Should be here: Kukoho, Come See Me in the Good Light
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
After Chalamet’s SAG acceptance speech last year, should it be any surprise that he failed to see how his eyerolling toward opera and ballet would negatively affect voters? Nope. And while, for me, Jordan did not show enough range to evoke greatness (would you really be able to tell the difference between the two brothers he plays without the amazing work of Wunmi Mosaku?), between Chalamet’s Icarus-ian plummet, and the good will engendered from BBC’s heartless production of the BAFTA’s, where they managed to be both racist and anti-Tourette’s at the exact same time, Jordan has this sewn up. Two weeks ago, 78% of experts had it for Chalamet. Now flip that.
Who would I vote for? I guess Hawke (though I disliked the film immensely). I’d have voted for Jessi Plemons or Joel Edgerton had they been nominated. Also, Toni Servillo in the Italian art house flick, La Grazia, gave every bit as good a performance as the actual nominees.
Nominees:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Will win: Michael B. Jordan
Should win: Ethan Hawke
Should be here: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia, Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams or Toni Servillo, La Grazia
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
100% chance Jessie Buckley wins the Oscar and deservedly so. But in any other year, I’d like to think Ms. Reinsve could win. I’m not sure who pulled more tears out of me. Then I’d follow them up with Rose Byrne in a film I kinda loathed, which may be the point. But ask three different people their order and you’ll get three different answers. The only non-nominated lead actress that I felt some investment in was from a teeny tiny film called Silent Friend, an epic triptych about a tree. Yes. That’s right. A tree. Nonetheless, Swiss actress, Luna Wedler was fantastic in it.
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Will win: Jessie Buckley
Should win: Jessie Buckley
Longshot: none
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Interestingly, this race has swayed considerably over the last two weeks, as well. What was long thought to be Skarsgård’s to lose, has now swung toward Sean Penn. I voted for Penn for the SAG, and believe him to be the most deserving, though it is a very close battle, as Skarsgård may have given the performance of a career. BTW, how it’s a “supporting” role is beyond me. Had he been up for Lead Actor, he’d have received my vote based on the nominees in that category.
As for additional possibilities, I would have been fine seeing Mescal (Hamnet) or Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) in the mix at the expense of del Toro.
Nominees:
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Will win: Sean Penn
Should win: Sean Penn
Long Shot: Stellan Skarsgård
Should be here: Paul Mescal, Hamnet or Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
So this battle is kind of crazy. All five are simply outstanding! I voted for Mosaku, but you could easily sway me that Taylor deserved it. Madigan (who will win) was great, even if in a much more two-dimensional role. But if her acceptance speech at the SAG’s is anything to go by, it will at least be a very fun 90 seconds or so. Frankly, she should have won for Field of Dreams all those years ago. And Fanning is exceptional in Value, as is the glue of the film’s Norwegian family, played by Lilleas.
Outside of this group, I think you could have nominated either of the two female actors in Sirat or the incredible Mia Goth in Frankenstein.
Nominees:
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Will win: Amy Madigan
Should win: Wunmi Mosaku or Teyana Taylor
Long Shot: Wunmi Mosaku or Teyana Taylor
Should be here: Jade Oukid or Stefania Gadda, Siråt or Mia Goth, Frankenstein
Achievement in Directing
Welp, if it wins Best Picture, it sure should win Best Director. But I’d probably give it to the criminally not nominated, Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein. I mean, talk about putting your imprimatur on a film! Or Mr. Trier. NO film affected me as much as Sentimental Value. Clint Bentley’s vision for Train Dreams was also exceptional. Finally, Paollo Sorrentino’s La Grazia has stayed with me since I saw it back in October thanks to his vision and ear for hypnotic dialogue and cadence.
Nominees:
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win:Joachim Trier
Long Shot: Ryan Coogler
Should be here: Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein; Clint Bentley, Train Dreams; or Paolo Sorrentino, La Grazia
Original Screenplay
Sinners will win, though I’d give it to Sentimental Value. Accident is overrated, Blue Moon was a little too play-like and, as stated earlier, I wanted to punch Marty in the face with a ping pong racket. Sirat‘s script is simply too crazy not to be mentioned. I already mentioned the brilliant dialogue of La Grazia, and THE MOST ORIGINAL script of the year goes to the crazy Thai film, A Useful Ghost. The ghost is…never mind…rent it from all the usual streamers. There is too much there to give away.
Nominees:
Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi
Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler
Will win: Sinners
Should Win: Sentimental Value
Long Shot: none
Should be here: Santiago Fillol & Oliver Laxe, Siråt, La Grazia by Paolo Sorrentino, or the little known Thai comedy, A Useful Ghost written by Ratchapoom Boonbunchachoke
Best Adapted Screenplay
No one is taking this trophy from One Battle, though I might. Frankenstein, Bugonia and Train Dreams are all fantastic scripts. And for something from outside the nominees, there’s the brilliant animation feature nominee, Little Amelie. A tremendous script.
Nominees:
Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle after Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Frankenstein, Bugonia or Train Dreams
Long Shot: none
Should be here: the writers of Little Amelie
Achievement in Cinematography
Sinners is a lock, though I’m not sure why, to be fair. It’s a beautiful film…but more so than Train Dreams or Frankenstein?! While Marty gets everything right about the look of its place and time, the least impressive thing about One Battle is its cinematography. But how either should have beaten out shortlisted, but not nominated, Sirat or Hamnet is beyond me. Or the sumptuous kabuki saga Kokuho?! Or the golden filth of the desert in It Was Just an Accident. Or the brilliantly chromatic (though mostly flawed) remake of The Stranger?! The last three not even shortlisted. Whatever. The battle thus far has been between Sinners and OBAA. A week ago I’d have given it to Sinners. That seems to have switched this last week as OBAA picked up the American Society of Cinematographers award on Sunday evening. So OBAA it is. Not the worst choice by a long shot – especially as it was shot in VistaVision…which is why it has that cool sheen about it.
Nominees:
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Will win: OBAA
Should Win: Train Dreams or Frankenstein
Long Shot: Train Dreams
Should be here (from Shortlist): Sirat and Hamnet
Should be here (not from shortlist): Kokuho or The Stranger
Best International Film
You can simply not convince me that Just an Accident (which is not nearly as funny or shocking as we’ve all been told) or The Voice of Hind Rajab (a film based on showing us its artifice to the point where it destroys the purpose of the film) deserved to be nominated over two other shortlisted films. The first being Japan’s Kokuho, whose three hour runtime feels about an hour SHORTER that Marty Supreme. The tale of two kabuki actors is brilliant, gorgeous, curious, beautifully acted and riveting. The other, The President’s Cake, an incredibly enveloping and heart wrenching road movie set in the time of Sadam Hussein’s reign, with a brilliant child performance at its core.
No matter, Sentimental Value rightfully owns this statuette, though Sirat and Secret Agent are both worthy adversaries.
Nominees:
The Secret Agent, Brazil
It Was Just an Accident, France
Sentimental Value, Norway
Sirāt, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia
Will win: Sentimental Value
Should win: Sentimental Value
Long Shot: The Secret Agent
Should be here (from shortlist): President’s Cake, Iraq or Kokuho, Japan
Should be here (not from shortlist): La Grazia, Italy or A Useful Ghost, Thailand
Best Documentary Feature
Not the best group of docs we’ve had over the years. But, to be fair, I’ve seen very few others this year that were all that good. Anyhoo…it’s looking like The Perfect Neighbor is going to eke out the win over Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Though both pale in comparison to The Alabama Solution. And don’t hold a candle to Come See Me in the Good Light! Holy crap, Light is so very, very good. Please, do yourself a favor, fire up Apple+, grab a box of tissues, and watch it! A miraculous film.
I did see a crazy doc at the Chicago Film Fest called The Helsinki Effect, about a dull subject, told in a brilliantly funny and informative way. Not available currently, but when it does show up in streaming land, watch it!
Nominees:
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Will win: Perfect Neighbor
Should win: Come See Me in the Good Light
Long Shot: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Should be here (not from shortlist): The Helsinki Effect
Best Animated Feature Film
Okay, sue me. I didn’t hate KPop, but it would be my fifth choice out of these for me. No matter. It will be the easiest winner to call night. I thought Arco was very sweet. Elio possessed a new way to tell a typical animated adventure story – while also being funny. And Zootopia 2 was filled with wit and heart and very good VO performances.
But Little Amelie possessed the most interesting animation, was the more imaginatively written, left us with a feeling of wonder and a deep-rooted examination of our own childhoods. Loved it. Won’t win.
Nominees:
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Will win: KPop Demon Hunters
Should win: Little Amélie or Zootopia 2
Long Shot: none
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SONG)
Man, this category. So few songs have anything to do with the film and everything to do with getting a star’s song in the soundtrack. In that way, this is an analagous year. FOUR of the songs are part of their film’s core. Yes, I watched Diane Warren: Relentless, even though it’s just nominated for song. A decent song. Maybe even a lovely song – and a worthy cap to the doc. Obviously “Golden” is an imperative companion to Kpop Demon Hunters plot (and a LOCK to win the Oscar). “I Lied To You” is the centerpiece of Sinners. And “Sweet Dreams of Joy” might as well be the alternate title of Viva Verdi. Only Nick Cave’s “Train Dreams” seems out of place in its film as, lyrically, it’s a little too on the nose.
Of the shortlisted songs not nominated, what else deserved to be here? Throw out Nick’s piece and bring in Sara Bareilles and Brandi Carlile’s “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. VERY rarely does a closing credit-placed song seem so…um…well placed. It’s so very, very good, and would have been amazing to see performed at the ceremony (though if that was the criteria, would’ve been great to see NIN or Billy Idol perform their shortlisted contributions).
Nominees:
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Will win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Long Shot: “I Lied to You” from Sinner
Should Be Here (from Shortlist): “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SCORE)
I’ll be honest, none of these scores are great beginning to end. There are three other scores that were shortlisted, but not nominated, that really should be here: Kanding Ray’s Sirat, Nicholas Britell’s Jay Kelly and F1 from Hans Zimmer (probably top to bottom, my favorite, and lord knows, I am not a Zimmer devotee).
But those are not our choices. Me? I’ll ALWAYS take a Max Richter score, and then give me some Jonny Greenwood…even if neither of these are their best. Fendrix’ score for Bugonia is reasonably eerie, if not wow. And this might be the least interesting score Desplat (Frankenstein) has ever had nominated.
Which leaves the winner in a veritable landslide: Ludwig Goransson for Sinners. I’m a little confused by it, however. As a former sax playing member of the Chicago Blues scene in the 90’s, the blues needs to be felt more than written, and without Miles Caton, I’m not sure how impressive the score is by itself. However, I’m quite certain Mr. Goransson will be much more delighted with winning than disturbed by my critique, so…mazel tov.
Nominees:
Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Will win: Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Should Win: Hamnet, Max Richter or One Battle…, Jonny Greenwood
Long Shot: None
Should be here (from shortlist): Sirat, Kanding Ray, Jay Kelly, Nicholas Britell or F1, Hans Zimmer
Achievement in Film Editing
I’d give it to F1 from this choice. This is also the ONE area I might give Marty Supreme some props. But OBAA will run away and hide with this one. I think there were some other films more deserving here than, say, Sentimental or Sinners, namely Sirat, Kokuho or, even, stay with me, Running Man. That movie FLIES! But seriously, any of those three give OBAA a run for its money on the Avid deck (for Tracy: an Avid deck is what most editors use for their craft)!
Nominees:
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: F1
Long Shot: F1
Should be here: Sirat, Kokuho, Running Man
Achievement in Production Design
Not quite sure what OBAA is doing here when Kokuho and Secret Agent are out there. The others nominees are deserving, but the Oscar is going to Frankenstein. No problem with that at all.
Nominees:
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Will win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
Long Shot: none
Should be here: Secret Agent and Kokuho
Achievement in Costume Design
Yep, another for Frankenstein (and I concur). Not for nothing, while I KNOW the costumes for Avatar 4 are actually real, once Master James had his way with the rest of the film, they didn’t SEEM real. I mean, the incredibly dull epic, Magellan, basically created the same costumes with no CGI necessary. And, uh, no Kokuho?! WTF?!
Nominees:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Will win: Frankenstein
Should win: Frankenstein
Long Shot: none
Should Be Here: Kokuho. Seriously, WTF?!
Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
I mean, kabuki IS makeup and hairstyling so it’s a no-brainer for me…give it to Kohuko. Whatever. Not gonna happen. Frankenstein for the win. It does possess very, very good hair and makeup.
Oh…and what’s with THREE films where this is the only nomination they received? Damn the academy for making me watch Ugly Stepsister and Smashing Machine (though, as stated earlier, I didn’t actually get through them).
Nominees:
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Will win: Frankenstein
Should win: Kohuko
Long Shot: None
Achievement in Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash is truly terrible…but at least it’s only four hours long. Both its inane length and lack of quality are the result of a dangerous desire to make everything a visual effect. No soul, and no ability to edit all the cool ideas the FX folks had. Way to go, Mr. Cameron! But it’ll win.
Nominees:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Long Shot: none
Should Be Here (from Shortlist): Tron: Ares
Achievement in Sound
While F1 is going to win, which is fine with me, Sirat is equally deserving. Would’ve been nice to see Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning, or the only best part of Avatar 3 nominated here.
Nominees:
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Will win: F1
Should Win: F1 (or Sirāt)
Long Shot: Sinners
Should Be Here (from Shortlist): Avatar 4, MI8
Best Animated Short Film
Okay. EASILY the least amount of quality maybe…ever in this category? Some of the animation is fine, but only one had a story or point worth holding one’s attention, and that was Florence Miailhe’s Butterfly (Papillon). Forevergreen was mostly saccharin, Pearls was kind of a nothing burger given the depth and quality of the animation, Retirement Plan was something we’ve seen a million times – basically a series of sight gags, and Three Sisters, the best of the lesser four, at least had a style that matched its humor, if not enough to make me go “wow”! Blech.
Nominees:
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Will win: Butterfly
Should Win: Butterfly
Long Shot:The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Best Live-Action Short Film
Okay…kind of a mixed bag this year. I know many people who really disliked all of five of these films. I’m a little more forgiving. With the exception of Jane Austen’s Period Drama, which felt like an elongated SNL sketch (granted one of the good ones), the other four held promise and purpose. Originally it was assumed Friends of Dorothy was going to win, which would be third on my list, just above Butcher’s Stain and just below the heartfelt short named after my family, apparently, The Singers. However, an Oscar winning short should be more than just an experiment in bringing about a feeling. It should describe a worldview, possess three acts, a script that tells its story in an emotional fashion, and leave you going, “wow” in a whispered tone when it fades to black. Of these five, the only one that met that set of criteria would be Alexandre Singh & Natalie Musteata’s lovely, thrilling and romantic 37-minute film, Two People Exchanging Saliva. A riveting what-if, in the vein of Vonnegut’s “Harrison Bergeron”, I would have happily ingested a feature length version. I also enjoyed The Singers, simple as it is, though with a slightly unsatisfying ending. It will be one of the closer battles of the night, and it appears that the odds have swung in the favor of Saliva for the win. Again, a toss up if betting, I’m gonna pick (and root for) the film with more imagination…Saliva.
Nominees:
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Should Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Long Shot: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Best Documentary Short Subject
These films are truly all over the place…so much so that I’m not sure Perfectly a Strangeness should even be considered a documentary…I mean, someone had to tell the donkeys where to go. I’m pretty sure one of the burros didn’t just say, “Hey, look at that cool telescope! Let’s go check it out!”. That said, it was weird enough that I enjoyed it. The other four all pulled on your cry-strings: two about children dying, one about our country going backward as it relates to abortion and one about a war journalist and the aftermath of his violent end. Armed (the latter) is the one that affected me the most, but odds are All the Empty Rooms will get the win. Can’t be really upset about it. It’s very affecting, just not as complete a film as Armed.
Nominees:
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Will win: All the Empty Rooms
Should win: Armed Only With a Camera
Long shot: Armed Only with a Camera
Achievement in Casting
First time award! Not quite sure how Sentimental Value or Sirat didn’t get more consideration. Both were shortlisted. And the casts of President’s Cake and Kohuko were terrific, as well. But Sinners is a lock.
Nominees:
Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler
Will win: Sinners
Should win: Sinners or One Battle After Another
Long Shot: None
Should be here (from Shortlist): Sentimental Value, Sirat or Weapons
Should be here (not from shortlist): President’s Cake and Kohuko
That’s all. Good luck in your pools and in your hopes! See you at the Oscars! And let’s all root for Conan to be as good as he was last year!
The No Spoiler Critic 
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