Usual disclaimer: My SAG picks are usually FAR less accurate than my Oscars’ picks. We actors are so unpredictable. Oscar voters, not so much.
So, each year I give massive grief to the Nominating Committees for some of the inane choices they make. However, with a couple (glaring) exceptions, they mostly make sense!
On the film side…do foreign language actors not pay dues? Are they FiCore? Can someone tell me why we didn’t nominate anyone (or the cast) from “Sentimental Value”? And can someone please tell me the big deal surrounding “Marty Supreme” and Chalamet? Don’t get it. And while I didn’t love “Sinners”, I certainly understand its acting accolades.
As for television (and for the first time in years, I watched almost everything), I just need someone, anyone, to explain to me where the funny in “The Studio” is. Seriously, without the late Ms. O’Hara, it’s a big old comedy nothing burger. Even Ike Barinholtz, whom I love, is kinda unfunny in it. But what do I know? At the very least we acknowledged Gary Oldman’s continued brillance “Slow Horses”, even if he has no shot to win.
Okay…off my soapbox. Here we go…
So, nominees in BOLD are who I think will win. Nominees in ITALICS got my vote.
PART 1: FILM
LEAD PERFORMANCE IN A FILM
Women
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” – Will win and my vote
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Obviously it’s between Ms. Buckley and Ms. Byrne. I really did not connect with “If I Had Legs…” (and I’m a psychotherapist, fer chrissakes), but I can acknowledge the level of commitment and emotional depth Burne brings to the film. But if I’m being honest, I didn’t think it was particularly more effecting than Sarah Silverman’s nominated performance in “I Smile Back” a decade ago. In fact, I found that interpretation of a very similar character to be more three-dimensional. Jessie Buckley, otoh, was other worldly and simply CRUSHED me. So for me, a no-brainer…and I don’t think it will be a close vote. Of the other three, only Kate Hudson gives a bravura performance. And since we failed to acknowledge “Sentimental Value”, there’s no one else to give those two a run.
Men
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” – Will win
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” – My vote
<sigh> He’s gonna win, and I don’t understand why. Certainly the performance doesn’t rise to the level of the other four as far as I’m concerned. Richard Dreyfuss played the same role much better in “The Apprenticeship of Duddie Kravitz” a million years ago. And frankly, Skarsgaard should be in this group, and I would take him out. Also, we’re going to reward someone who last year, during his speech told a ROOM FULL OF ACTORS that he “wants to be one of the greats!”, like no one has ever aspired to that. Oy. As for me? I thought Plemons was MAGNIFICENT in “Bugonia”! Leo was also quite good, but, in the end, mugged a bit too much for me. Michael B. didn’t delineate the two twins enough for me to be wowed. Lindo and Mosaku stole that movie. And Hawke…well…I was bored to tears by the film and, as I assume I was supposed to, felt like I was watching a taped play…and not a very good one.
SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE IN A FILM
Women
Odessa A’Zion, “Marty Supreme”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” – Will win and my vote
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Ms. Mosaku. End of story. Ms. Taylor was fantastic and shot out of a cannon from the jump! But Mosaku is the heart and soul of “Sinners”.
Men
Miles Caton, “Sinners”
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” – Will win and my vote
Lots of great choices here, but really between Penn, Elordi and Mescal (who somehow missed out on an Oscar nod). And why is Benicio here instead of Delroy Lindo? No idea. All that said, Penn’s character is EASILY the most memorable character of the season for me.
Ensemble
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet” – My vote
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners” – Will win
I struggled with my vote in this category, but in the end went with the cast in which every actor made their mark. Strictly more consistent. But in a decision that will make all the tabloids go all aflutter, “Sinners” will beat “OBAA”, which has won every award this season. It’ll win the Oscar, but I’m certainly okay with “Sinners” winning this award, even if I think the overall cast in OBAA was a tick better.
PART 2: TELEVISION DRAMA
Women
Britt Lower, “Severance”
Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”
Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
Not a White Lotus fan. Sorry, although Ms. Wood was a nice fresh breeze of reality in her acting choices. I love Lower (and an NU grad), but alas, not for the win. Up until the last two episodes, I would’ve voted for Ms. Seehorn (who will runaway with it, regardless), but it all lost the plot for me. I’m voting for Keri Russell who I love, love, love in everything she does. She just dares me to look away from her. And I can’t.
Men
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” – My vote
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” – Will win
While Wyle (see what I did there) is going to run away and hide with the statuette, there were a couple scenes where I noticed the actor – ironically the scenery chewing scenes. Oldman the actor, on the other hand, completely disappears in to Jackson Lamb, stinky farts, feet, breath and all. So, he gets my vote. Oh! Before I forget…Goggins deserved a nomination…BUT FOR A DIFFERENT SHOW! He is simply spectacular on “Fallout”. SPECTACULAR!
Ensemble
“The Diplomat”
“Landman”
“The Pitt” -Will win and my vote
“Severance”
“The White Lotus”
Kind of a bummer for “Severance”, whose second season might have some of the most imaginative ideas since 1967’s “The Prisoner”, But “The Pitt” simply has four times the size of the cast, and all of them brilliant.
PART 3: TELEVISION COMEDY
Women
Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” – Will win and my vote
Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale”
Umm..Wiig and Ortega. Huh. Not sure what the NomComm was doing. I mean, Kristin Bell or the hilarious Justine Lupe, who plays her sister, would both have been much more logical choices. So, I am left with the only thing I enjoyed about “The Studio”, which was the late, great Catherine O’Hara. She’ll win with about 99.9% of the vote for the evening’s saddest part of the evening.
Men
Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This”
Ted Danson, “A Man on the Inside”
Seth Rogen, “The Studio” – Will win
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” – My vote
Seriously, what are we talking about here? While Rogen is going to win, I would take every other nominee over him. For my buck, Short was the best of the bunch. He gets better and better.
Ensemble
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear” – My vote
“Hacks”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“The Studio” – Will win
When was the last time TWO comedies were nominated for ensemble with no cast members getting an individual nod?! Regardless, and even though it’s STILL not a comedy, “The Bear” remains my favorite complete cast of this bunch. Somehow “The Studio” is going to win. Whatever.
Part 4: TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Women
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me”
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” – Will win
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault”
Christine Tremarco, “Adolescence”
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” – My vote
Danes was, well, Danes and Snook was just okay in a dreadful show. Erin Doherty was masterful (and a helluva psychologist) and is probably going to win. But the real race, for me, is between Tremarco and Williams. It’s a coin flip for me, but I’m biased toward “Dying for Sex” as I would never have adopted my late dog, Dewey, if not for the show’s creator…so I vote Williams. But seriously, Tremarco is astonishing!
Men
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit”
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” – Will win
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” – My vote
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me”
I loved Bateman in “Black Rabbit” and…blah blah blah. Owen Cooper and Stephen Graham should get a dual prize. Cooper will win. I voted for Graham. Could’ve gone either way.
Part 5: Stunts
Film
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning” – Will win and my vote
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
Seriously. Do we even need to discuss this?
Television
“Andor” Will win
“Landman”
“The Last of Us”
“Squid Game” – My vote
“Stranger Things”
None of these stood out to me. I mean, “Andor” was one of my favorite shows of this, or any, year. But it seems to me “Squid Game” had the most dangerous stuff going on, and on, and on. That said, looks like “Andor” will win.
Enjoy the Awards!! See you at The Oscars!
The No Spoiler Critic 