Lists and Predictions

Jason’s Predictions and Predilections for the 97th Annual Academy Awards

It’s time for my picks and shoulda’s for Sunday’s 97th Annual Academy Awards!

Okay, gonna be honest. I did NOT watch everything this year. Time was not on my side (which is a good thing, it means I was making a living). However, I still know how to read the tea leaves, and even though the awards leading up to the Oscars have been kind of all over the place, I’m pretty pretty sure how the Academy will vote. Or not. But I think, maybe, yes. Maybe? However, what that does mean is that I probably will not be doing a lot of “should win” picks since that would be unreasonable given the circumstances. Where I did see all, I will choose.

So, without any more of that ado stuff, let’s get on with it (did I mention I don’t have a ton of time?)

Click here to play along with my Oscars Cheat Sheet!

And now, on to the picks

Best Motion Picture of the Year

People ask me all the time why a film like “Green Book”, “Shape of Water” or even “CODA” beat out films with more craft. The answer is the Academy votes on a preferential system (for Best Picture only). So if there are two front-runners, factions grow. So let’s say you really want film A to win. You obviously vote for them first. But film B, which is equally loved by the opposing faction, you’ll put last, so it won’t win. And vice versa. All of which is to say, quite often the third best film of the year wins Best Picture because everyone puts film C in second position. Confused?

A few weeks ago, I would have said “Conclave” for sure (and it’s the movie I think should win). However, after a couple late award wins, “Anora” has picked up major steam. I agree that they should be that close. They were both up there as my favorite films of the year, along with “A Real Pain”, “Flow” and “Vermiglia”. The current trend says “Anora”, but “Conclave” won the SAG for ensemble. A lot of SAG member’s kids fill out the SAG ballots because, well, time is hard to find. And yet, “Conclave” is a film strictly for adults, so they watched it. The actor make up the largest block of Academy voters…thus I think “Conclave” sneaks across the line. Hmmm…or “Anora”. Yeah. Let’s go with “Anora”, based on the very scientific barometer of my gut.

Nominees:

  • “Anora” (Neon)
  • “The Brutalist” (A24)
  • “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight)
  • “Conclave” (Focus)
  • “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
  • “I’m Still Here” (Sony Classics)
  • “Nickel Boys” (Amazon/MGM)
  • “The Substance” (Mubi)
  • “Wicked” (Universal)

Will win: Conclave, or Anora, or Conclave, or Anora…okay…Anora. Final answer…but I have my doubts…
Should win: Conclave
Longshots: Anora or Conclave (though not a long shot…ia toss-up)
Should be here: “A Real Pain”! wt actual f?? Or “Flow”?! Hello?

Achievement in Directing

I know, I know. Usually the Best Director is the tell for Best Film and it seems Sean Baker is a lock at the moment. I can’t believe Audiard was nominated, especially at the expense of “Wicked” director, Jon Chu and/or Jesse Eisenberg for “A Real Pain”. I really don’t like musicals (including “Wicked”), but what Chu created was intensely beautiful. Watch out for Corbet. If Academy members stopped watching “Brutalist” at intermission, he may get the nod. It is an amazing first half of a film. If they watched  the whole thing? Baker’s a lock for “Anora”.

Nominees:

  • Sean Baker, “Anora”
  • Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
  • James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
  • Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
  • Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

Will win: Sean Baker
Should win: Jon Chu
Long Shot: Brady Corbet
Should be here: Jon Chu, Jesse Eisenberg, Maura Delpero for “Vermiglia”

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

SAG awards excepted, this is Brody’s award. The only reason he didn’t win the SAG was because I don’t think anyone watched it. As a result we had to suffer through that “look at me” speech from Chalamet. Yeah, yeah. You want to be great. That makes you different how, exactly? I know he had no chance of being nominated, but Tomaso Ragno, from “Vermiglia” is simply phenomenal. Also, TWO YEARS IN A ROW, Domingo gives the performance of the year and has no shot. That has to change at some point. Please?!

Nominees:

  • Adrian Brody, “The Brutalist”
  • Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
  • Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
  • Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
  • Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Will win: Adrian Brody
Should win: Colman Domingo or Ralph Fiennes
Longshot: Fiennes
Should be here: Tomaso Ragno, “Vermiglia”

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

After the ridiculous omission of Greta Lee last year, I’m feeling less angry, especially as Fernanda Torres was nominated for “I’m Still here”. But, to be honest, I still haven’t seen “The Substance”. No matter, Demi Moore is going to win in one of the great comeback stories. Personally? I’d give it to Madison or Torres. The less said of Gascon, probably the better. I wish she was being wiped out of the category for artistic reasons, but cancelled or not, she would not be in my top five performances of the year. I would have put Shahana Goswami in for her performance in “Santosh”. Holy crap! Find that movie and WATCH IT!

Nominees:

  • Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
  • Karla Sofia Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
  • Mikey Madison, “Anora”
  • Demi Moore, “The Substance”
  • Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Will win: Demi Moore
Should win: ??? (though I loved Mikey and Fernanda!)
Longshot: Mikey Madison
Should be here: Shahana Goswami

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

No need to even discuss this. Get ready for the most under-rehearsed and funny speech of the night. Congrats, Mr. Culkin! I would have liked to have seen Clarence Maclin or Paul Raci from “Sing Sing” in the mix, however, especially as I thought Guy Pearce was simply brutal in “The Brutalist”. And believe me when I say no pun intended.

Nominees:

  • Yura Borisov, “Anora”
  • Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
  • Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
  • Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
  • Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Will win: Kieran Culkin
Should win: Culkin
Long Shot: none
Should be here: Clarence Maclin or Paul Raci, “Sing Sing”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

(sigh). Don’t get me wrong. I love Zoe Saldana. I’m glad she’ll get an Oscar for a number of reasons. But for this? I mean, if I’m being honest, I thought Selena Gomez was better, granted in a much less three dimensional role. Me? I’d have given it to Monica Barbaro, easily my favorite performance in “A Complete Unknown”. But if you compare screen time…hell, if you compare screen time, Saldana should have been put up for a leading Female Actor Oscar, not a supporting. I’d like to have seen Jamie Lee Curtis (“Last Showgirl”) here or Setarah Maleki (“Seed of the Sacred Fig”), or the amazing Carlotta Gamba (“Vermiglion”). Wow!

Nominees:

  • Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
  • Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
  • Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
  • Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
  • Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Will win: Zoe Saldana
Should win: Monica Barbaro
Long Shot: none
Should be here: Jamie Lee Curtis, Carlotta Gamba, or Setarah Maleki

Original Screenplay

“Here ya go, Mr. Eisenberg! Sorry we failed to notice you directed this, too”. ACTUALLY, I would take note of this. If “Anora” wins this award, I say “Conclave” is def winning the best film Oscar since this is the “here’s your consolation prize” prize. If, however, “A Real Pain” wins, as it should, then “Anora” will win the Oscar.

Nominees:

  • “Anora,” Sean Baker
  • “The Brutalist,” Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold
  • “A Real Pain,” Jesse Eisenberg
  • “September 5,” Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder
  • “The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat

Will win: A Real Pain
Should Win: A Real Pain
Not at all a Long Shot: Anora
Should be here: Maura Delpero for “Vermiglia”…oh, to hell with it, “Deadpool and Wolverine”, should be here. Funniest script of the year by five very funny guys.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bet the house on “Conclave”. Maybe the most intelligent adaptations of the year! NO idea why “Perez” is here. The only thing worse than the music is the script. The story is fantastic. The script? Not so much. “A Complete Unknown” has no second act to speak of. “Sing Sing” is utterly deserving, but won’t win.

Nominees:

  • “A Complete Unknown,” James Mangold, Jay Cocks
  • “Conclave,” Peter Straughan
  • “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain & Nicolas Livecchi
  • “Nickel Boys,” RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
  • “Sing Sing,” Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin & John “Divine G” Whitfield

Will win: Conclave
Should Win: Conclave or Sing Sing
Long Shot: n/a
Should Be Here (maybe): Meh, I’m okay with this group.

Best Animated Feature Film

Okay, if “Flow” loses, I’ll be PISSED! Which means I’ll be angry, because I think “Wild Robot” is going to win. A fine animated film. Maybe a great animated film. But “Flow” is simply a GREAT FILM! Okay. Settle down. There is a chance “Flow” upsets, but not a very big one.

Nominees:

  • “Flow”
  • “Inside Out 2”
  • “Memoir of a Snail”
  • “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
  • “The Wild Robot”

Will win: “Wild Robot”
Should win: “Flow”

Best International Film

F*cking “Emilia Perez”. Not one person has yet to explain to me why this film deserves to be amongst the bunch here…ESPECIALLY at the expense of “Vermiglia”. “Perez” is just bad. It’s bad. Again, story, fantastic. Would make a great film. But turning a story in to an opera and then trying to squeeze it in to a musical…oy vey. Just terrible. Nonetheless, it’s going to win. HOLD ON! Breaking news…”Perez’s” current bad press is SO powerful, looks like “I’m Still Here” might eke it out. I’m totally okay with that. I mean, I can think of 14 other shortlisted International films I’d be okay with beating out “Perez”. And not because of the current news – strictly because it’s…enough…you get it. I’d have chosen “Flow” from this bunch, but “I’m Still here” is perhaps equally deserving.

Nominees:

  • “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
  • “The Girl with the Needle” (Denmark)
  • “Emilia Pérez” (France)
  • “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
  • “Flow” (Latvia)

Will win: “I’m Still Here”
Should win: “Flow”
Long Shot: “Emilia Perez”, I guess?
Should be here: “Vermiglia”, Italy

Best Documentary Feature

Have not watched one, so this is strictly on my knowledge of voters and odds…

Nominees:

  • “Black Box Diaries”
  • “No Other Land”
  • “Porcelain War”
  • “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat,”
  • “Sugarcane”

Will win: No Other Land
Should win: ???
Long Shot: Porcelain War

Best Documentary Short Subject

I missed ALL the shorts this year. I KNOW! I suck.

Nominees:

  • “Death by Numbers”
  • “I Am Ready, Warden”
  • “Incident”
  • “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
  • “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”

Will win: I Am Ready Warden
Should win: ???
Not So Long shot: Only Girl in the Orchestra

Best Live-Action Short Film

Small margins lean toward “Silent” but “Anuja” and “A Lien” have their supporters as well!

Nominees:

  • “A Lien”
  • “Anuja”
  • “I’m Not a Robot”
  • “The Last Ranger”
  • “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

Will win: Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Should Win: ???
Long Shot: Anuja

Best Animated Short Film

While I didn’t see these, I CAN tell you there is absolutely no consensus on what wins in this category. Expert and media predictions and voter faves are all over the place. I’ll go with the literal number of votes by the majority of supposed experts:

Nominees:

  • “Beautiful Men”
  • “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
  • “Magic Candies”
  • “Wander to Wonder”
  • “Yuck!”

Will win: Beautiful Men
Should Win: ???
Not-So Long Shot: Any of the other four!

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SCORE)

I’m not sure Broadway musicals should be included in this category, since it isn’t an original score for a film and it already won a Tony, and yet, here we are. For me? I’ll take a Bertelmann score any day, and “Conclave” is no exception. However, Blumberg’s “Brutalist” is the heavy favorite and I’m okay with that. It’s not the easiest music to dig in to outside the context of the film, but within it, absolutely. Kris Bowers’ “Wild Robot” compositions are everything you want from an animated feature score; wonder, movement and beauty. We all know at this point my feelings on “Perez’, especially when considering Reznor and Ross’ “Challengers” score was left off the ballot. I mean…come ON! Nominees:

  • “The Brutalist,” Daniel Blumberg
  • “Conclave,” Volker Bertelmann
  • “Emilia Pérez,” Clément Ducol & Camille
  • “Wicked,” John Powell & Stephen Schwartz
  • “The Wild Robot,” Kris Bowers

Will win: The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
Should Win: The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
Long Shot: Conclave – Volker Bertelmann
Should be here: Challengers – Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original SONG)

So of the fifteen shortlisted Best Song recommendations, there are FIVE different songs that should have been nominateed…well, four anyway. I mean, “El Mal” is going to run away with it, but I would have placed it fifth. I far prefer “Like A Bird” from “Sing Sing”. Watch that film and tell me you got through the song without tears welling. (That movie is so fucking good). Then I’d go “Mi Camino”, “Journey” and “Never Too Late”. NOW, let’s visit the songs that made the shortlist but did not make the cut:
Saiorse Ronan singing “Winter Coat” is what sets the emotional stage for that terrific WWII film, “Blitz”. “Compress/Repress” from “Challengers” brings the sexual tension very to a film that I thought tried a little too hard to do that on its own. “Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” is an essential plot point of the film – and how great to have had an Irish-language rap as a nominee! And Kristen Wiig singing “Harper and Will Go West” is simply lovely. Those four plus “Like A Bird”…now THAT would be a top five for sure! You can hear them all here.

Nominees:

  • “Never Too Late,” “Elton John: Never Too Late”
  • “El Mal,” “Emilia Pérez”
  • “Mi Camino,” “Emilia Pérez”
  • “Like a Bird,” “Sing Sing”
  • “The Journey,” “The Six Triple Eight”

Will win: “El Mal” – “Emilia Perez”
Should Win: “Like a Bird” – “Sing Sing”
Long Shot: None
Should Be Here: A whole mess of songs. See above.

Achievement in Sound

I mean, “Dune” should win this, though there is a movement toward “Wicked”. Either are fine, but I think “Dune” pulls it out. I’d like to have seen “Flow” here. Not at all sure why “Perez” made the cut. “Deadpool…” and “Alien: Romulus” would seem like better choices from the shortlist. <shrug emoji>

Nominees:

  • “A Complete Unknown”
  • “Dune: Part Two”
  • “Emilia Pérez”
  • “Wicked”
  • “The Wild Robot”

Will win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Not So Long Shot: Wicked
Should Be Here: Flow, Deadpool…

Achievement in Cinematography

“Brutalist” will win and should win. Glad when any Pablo Larrain film (“Maria”) gets recognized for cinematography. Larrain and his camera man, Edward Lachman have incredible eyes! But I would have chosen “Dune”, with the caveat that I have not seen “Nosferatu”. And, seriously, Mikhaik Krichman’s work on “Vermiglia” is unbelievable.

Nominees:

  • “The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley
  • “Dune: Part Two,” Greig Fraser
  • “Emilia Pérez,” Paul Guillaume
  • “Maria,” Edward Lachman
  • “Nosferatu,” Jarin Blaschke

Will win: Brutalist – Lol Crowley
Should Win: Dune II – Greg Fraser
Should be here: Vermiglia – Mikhail Krichman

Achievement in Film Editing

So here is the ONE category I could see “Perez” winning. Not that I would choose it. And neither will the voters, because the consensus is “Conclave” wins. Also “Anora” had some great comic/farce editing. As for other options, I wouldn’t have minded “Deadpool”, “Furiosa”, “Vermiglia” or “Dune” here.

Nominees:

  • “Anora,” Sean Baker
  • “The Brutalist,” Dávid Jancsó
  • “Conclave,” Nick Emerson
  • “Emilia Pérez,” Juliette Welfling
  • “Wicked,” Myron Kerstein

Will win: Conclave – Nick Emerson
Should Win: Conclave or Anora
Long Shot: Anora
Should be here: Vermiglia, Deadpool, Dune or Furiosa

Achievement in Visual Effects

Did not see “Alien” (been there done that), or “Better Man” (please don’t make me). No matter. “Dune ” will win.

Nominees:

  • “Alien: Romulus”
  • “Better Man”
  • “Dune: Part Two”
  • “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
  • “Wicked”

Will win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Long Shot: none
Should Be Here: Deadpool…

Achievement in Production Design

“Wicked” is a lock. And should be.

Nominees:

  • “The Brutalist,” Judy Becker
  • “Conclave,” Suzie Davies
  • “Dune: Part Two,” Patrice Vermette
  • “Nosferatu,” Craig Lathrop
  • “Wicked,” Nathan Crowley

Will win: Wicked
Should Win: Wicked
Long Shot: none
Should be here: maybe Furiosa?

Achievement in Costume Design

Really? “A Complete Unknown”? Did you all not see the crazy scene where there are hundreds of Deadpools, all ever so slightly different?! And “Blitz” and “Vermiglia”, which both make 1943 look, oh, so real. And the Oscar goes to…”Wicked”

Nominees:

  • “A Complete Unknown,” Arianne Phillips
  • “Conclave,” Lisy Christl
  • “Gladiator II,” Janty Yates
  • “Nosferatu,” Linda Muir
  • “Wicked,” Paul Tazewell

Will win: Wicked
Should win: Wicked
Should Be Here: Deadpool, Blitz or Vermiglia

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

I don’t really care, but “Substance” is going to win.

Nominees:

  • “A Different Man”
  • “Emilia Pérez”
  • “Nosferatu”
  • “The Substance”
  • “Wicked”

Will win: The Substance
Should win: ???
Long Shot: None
Should be here: “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” or “Maria”

That’s all. Good luck in your pools and in your hopes! See you at the Oscars!

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